Lei Feng network press: Author Li Zhiyong, ten years plank road programmer.
When new technologies emerge, they are often very deceptive , such as VR and AR.
This deception comes from two aspects at the same time: On the one hand, there is always a huge imagination space behind them to ignite people's enthusiasm, so that people have excessive expectations of them; on the one hand, calm people will always see the inadequacies of new technologies. And risk, and keep away from it. The former will cause VC to lose money, the latter will lead to business opportunities. To calmly look at these new technologies, you need to go back to some basic methodologies.
Peter Tiel said a story from 0 to 1, but if you want to make the future trend more clear, you still need to break it down and break down the so-called 0 to 1 into 0 to 1 of the technology and from 0 to the product. 1. It is not difficult to understand that when Turing's proof and von Neumann's architecture were completed, computer technology from 0 to 1 was actually completed. But in fact, only after the transistor appeared, Apple released its own first Apple computer in 1979. As a new type of personal computer, the product was completed from 0 to 1. From this example we can clearly see that the degree of integration of the critical device's maturity (if there is no transistor) with the product from 0 to 1 in the technology and from 0 to 1 in the product. This is reflected in smart phones. At that time, the iPhone was neither the first mobile phone to access the Internet nor the first mobile phone to support touch screens. However, it had the highest level of system integration and provided a complete experience. The epoch mark of smart phones.
The latter point is particularly vulnerable to being overlooked by certain Chinese companies, because there is a fundamental difference between this and the rapid sale of cottage products. The cottage is equivalent to a clear copy of the object, do the market is already contoured, this time the local winning will often replace the overall superiority, such as my screen is bigger, my CPU is faster and so on. As mentioned above, to increase the overall product integration degree, the system integration is required when the product crosses the border from 0 to 1. A simple good CPU and a good screen does not help this, but it needs to work hard in the connection area.
(via: finanzzas.com )
| Outdated ideas destined to lead the people lose eligibilityIn the last years of the Qing Dynasty, there was a vigorous Westernization Movement. A typical slogan in the Westernization Movement was that middle school should be the body and Western learning should be used. The general idea is that we should regard gunboats as a kind of mimicry tool. Then we only need to send people to study abroad, learn to cooperate with the West and learn how to do it, and we can still rejuvenate ourselves on the basis of keeping the tradition. The result is obvious. Although the Westernization Movement has a certain effect, the Westernization Movement has completely failed. The key lies in the fact that the gunboat is actually a product of a dynamic system of change and needs a system to support it. A simple imitation cannot be relied on. At that time, the decision-making power of society was still controlled by a large bureaucracy. However, this bureaucratic system did not realize that this technological development was a systematic project when allocating resources. This would have caused money to be moved to the renovation gardens. . The investment of social resources cannot be sufficient to support the development of the hardships. Therefore, we can also talk about the use of Western learning as a secondary school, and it is impossible to support the original intentions of the rich countries and the military.
Extending a little bit, we can also say that the idea of ​​a cottage is doomed to lose its qualification to lead the wave of technology .
When a cottage product is roughly a process like this: find a sample and follow it (or find an ODM manufacturer) to make a similar product, then start selling, work hard on marketing, channels, and finally make money. Take profit on hardware. The key here is not the polishing of the products but the sales and cost control. At the same time, the endurance and investment of a product will be relatively poor.
The core feature of the technology-driven wave of products in the next generation is: soft and hard integration. The integration of hardware and software is a new situation, and no one really has any processing experience. We can use the PC, mobile phone, and Echo as contrasts to visualize the concrete meaning of the integration of software and hardware:
For PC software and hardware is separated, you can reinstall the operating system, and even the early operating system basically have to install. But when the phone is basically tied to the operating system, very few people reinstall the phone to their own operating system, which is open in the mobile phone application store, but which application store is also tied to normal, this and the PC completely different. To Echo this product, the process of installing the application is also basically transparent, the user has only the right to use directly, software and hardware are integrated into a single service, which is the integration of hardware and software.
The integration of hardware and software means that integrating more usable products requires more original designs, that is, it takes time and resources, and this is the blind spot under the thinking of the cottage. When the cottage is not at the same time, it takes time. This kind of thinking and the difference in investment will have a fundamental impact on the results of creating the next generation of products.
When the iPhone comes out, the mobile phone can be a cottage, but Amazon Echo has such a high degree of integration of hardware and software, and products that are still in the exploratory stage are not forged. It can be seen that although a large wave of people ran on this road, it is estimated that many people will die later, because the products that come out of the ramshackle cottage are of no value to users, and most people will lose confidence in such products after the failure.
There are many kinds of failures. Some failures originate from the operational ideas themselves, while others come from execution. The failure above is actually a failure in thinking, not from the implementation level. Just as the failure of middle school for the use of Western learning.
| How to playFrom the above knowledge, it is easy to deduce that the style of play when building new products under the wave of new technology is different from the past. This seems to be common sense for some foreign companies, but for many companies that rely on the copycat model, it seems to be a field test.
New products and new products must firstly complete product accumulation from 0 to 1 in the game. This process may take a long time and may not have any return. If you do not complete this process and make the product rush to market, no matter how you strengthen sales, etc., it will not have a real effect, and all excessive publicity will quickly fall back, and may even lead to negative effects.
In the process of products from 0 to 1, the audience is not as much as possible, but the more active the better. Millet's so-called sense of participation still has its irreplaceable value. In fact, it is only in such a future-oriented new product category that it may have a real sense of participation. It is not difficult to determine whether a product has completed a breakthrough from 0 to 1, just look at how its functionality matches the user's psychological expectations. The big trouble for robots and this type of product is here because robots give people too much psychological expectations, so it is almost impossible for general robots to cross the threshold of products from 0 to 1.
The play of the cottage product is obviously different from the above, because it faces the already existing market, so its products can be completed quickly, and then it must be the promotion of brain platinum type. The new category must be innovative enough to focus on whether the product has crossed the threshold of 0 to 1. The strategic patience behind this is very different.
| SummaryIn summary, we can say: When the maturity of technology crosses the process from 0 to 1, for example, the emergence of microprocessors actually makes PC possible, then the opportunity to create new products will come, but this time Right still is the early market. At this time, users who really like this field need to participate in forming positive interaction, accumulating word of mouth and potential energy, and completing product accumulation from 0 to 1. Once the product crosses the mark from 0 to 1, it will It is the moment of real power.
Apple is wonderful, and it is estimated that it can not be copied, where the accumulation of products from 0 to 1 is completely completed within its own company. Domestic companies are more or less the root of the shanzhai, usually not good at the kind of polished products from 0 to 1, so the technology-driven new wave can be seen as a new exam.
Lei Feng Network (search "Lei Feng Network" public concern) Note: The author Li Zhiyong, there is a love thinking about fun and fun: zuomoshi (Qiushi things)