Lei Feng: According to July 21, Kaixin.com, which has been out of sight from the public, became the news again because Cheng Bingyi resigned, and the intelligence bulletin for the game stated that he had signed the "Agreement on Issuance of Shares and Payment of Cash Purchase Assets Framework Agreement" with Kaixin.com, or 100% acquisition. Happy network. At this point, "stealing food" will eventually leave us. This article comes from the entrepreneur Zhangs Jun of the sns lab. He believes that whether it is Kaixin, Renren or Weibo, the data surges again and again will not be successful, because all social operations that cannot build barriers are rogue.
If everyone's time is based on UGC-based interaction, then happy network is based on the interaction of explosive games. At that time, it seems that the effect is the same, and it brings users continuous use. For Kaixin, it also brought about a sudden increase in short-term data again and again.
When Kaixin.com defines the strategic path as a "explosion game," when Kaixin.com's UGC experience is far better than playing games, his fate is already doomed, because light games are almost certainly not a transfer cost. You will build a moat mode. You only have to bet on every game you launch. Of course we know it is almost impossible.
In the hot and dizzying months of July, two news broke out in the long-awaited Internet sector:
One is Plato APP's "character label" virus page fire , overnight friends swept friends circle, he also quickly soared to the Apple Mall social list 15, finally provoked the boss WeChat shot, and is an overnight account fan Clearing, from the speed of rapid fire to a swift transition, the drama is like a standard song of ice and fire.
Another from Gaxin Net to Plato, all growth hackers who cannot build "mind moat" are rogue, and Kaixin has finally "sold up" the news of success. In comparison, this news may not be so hot. Please forgive the author for listening. The first reaction afterwards was - Oh, how is this thing still alive? A quick death and immortality became a mummy, a dead but dead zombies, reflecting the bizarre but infinitely helpless moment.
Death or life, this is not the core issue. The question is how to reflect on death and life. Many times, people are too addicted to the legend of success or failure of heroes. So they don’t eat for a long time, so the pain is forgotten. History is always Similarly, how to die or how to die.
Thinking back and forth about 2006, QQ at that time was an essential part of our human relations. Although we all had a tendency to add to the QQ's adversity and LOW style, we could only rely on being unable to leave. Just as people expect that the Internet has nothing new to play, and when the trend has been established, the Internet has continuously emerged three challenges: the school (everyone), happy people, and Weibo. Compete quickly - your Tencent empire is finally going to change! Whoever thinks that, in this chaotic situation, Tencent launched a Wechat (whose free SMS is well-developed and WeChat does not seem to be in use) at a low-key and I do not know what it was intended to do, quietly advancing silently.
The era of smart machines has arrived. There has been an explosion of bamboo shoots, numerous social media apps, artillery, singing, graphing, anonymity, workplace, and instantaneous... But WeChat quietly pushed forward quietly. With. Until one day, we found that this guy with a normal appearance and a bit of LOW had already defeated all the opponents who were big and small, and each showed his best. The time circulated around and returned to Tencent.
The smoke of the past, such as meteors usually flash through the social network ... ... then the problem? Where are the N products that have been fired? Why was it like a ignorant fire that it eventually escaped the fast-paced cycle? "Fire is dead," although it is better than even fire, but why is it always sighing in the end? In the process of their "fire", as the growth of facebook hackers continue to stage, but ultimately why not What are the achievements of facebook? Is growth hacking a failure?
I. Remembrance: "Old Sanjie" has passed awayIf you want to sort out the context, you have to trace back the source.
The news of Kaixin.com reminded me of the long-sleeping memory of the author's heart. It was between 2007 and 11 when the dog was still bored in an office cubicle of China Telecom. The idealism and unfettered style during the university period. After graduation, social darkness and mediocre life form a huge gap. The only fun of the day is visiting BBS irrigation: Tianya, his alma mater BBS or interest BBS of his own operation. At this time, the school, happy and tweets appeared and lighted up life.
The following content is recalled from the perspective of an ordinary user, not the dimensions of a product manager or entrepreneur.
(1) Renren Network
For the school, the initial reason was "sister". At that time, many school girls registered on campus and displayed their forcing homepages in places such as Qzone, which also made this popular site on university campuses enter me. Graduated old monster's sight. Later, the younger brothers also used the school until one day when I discovered an ordinary younger brother, his friends and visitors were all pure and beautiful women. They also came from universities like Qingbei, which made me not hesitate to Registered on campus and applied for starring. The earliest use of the school’s most common action was to “look for a personâ€. Every day, they were removed from the pages of colleges and universities that had a large number of girls and were of high quality. They brushed the pages one by one, looking for all kinds of girls they knew or didn’t know. Do not have to worry about the authenticity of the user's identity. This feeling should be similar to many people who later played unfamiliarity and exploration, but it must be said that the quality of girls at school was far higher than them. It is not an exaggeration to say that even if my previous GFs were not met through the school, the deep fermentation of the relationship must have been there. It was a paradise for the literary and intellectual young people to fall in love with poetry.
(The picture shows the current people's network login page)
From the time of the mobile era, the school became everyone and went all the way down, gradually becoming the egg of today. But my loyalty has been maintained until 2014. The core reason for this is the "circle . "
As an "old monster" who had made up his mind in college debate circles, the feeling at that time was very easy to construct his own circle in everyone. There is no need to have a real name or background in the real world as in Weibo, and there is no need to build a branch company to play various operations. Just publish articles or status related to interest (debate). Gather a bunch of interacting and strong friends and enjoy the feeling of Weibo's Big V. Even if the fans don’t have microblogging like millions, but most of them are higher-quality school siblings, this sense of presence and accomplishment is still very strong. of. At that time, my creative enthusiasm was very high, nothing on UGC, and then the number of friends rose every day, the beautiful school girls across the country often come to visit.
This beautiful experience did not last long, eager to fully open the identity review of everyone who ate a fat person. The pure campus space was a mixed bag overnight, and all kinds of vest marketing numbers began to fly horizontally, and this was accompanied by “piracy plagiarism. "The public's home page of the wind has reached its peak, and all types of chicken soup, success stories, horror titles, and paragraphs have begun to flow across the information stream. The direct result is that you have written a dry article and the effect has been achieved. Far less than people copied a piece from Weibo , slowly do not want to write. At the same time, due to the presence of vests and navy forces, everyone’s micro-blogging-like online violence began to escalate, and the entire site was extremely awkward. Eventually the author was completely grayed out after suffering a terrible network siege in 2014. Heart, never return.
We have come to reconstruct this case. For users like the author, everyone's explosion is due to “the opposite sex†and stickiness comes from “the circle.†When your personal information, creations, relationships, and influence are all in Above, "transfer costs" will be very high, and you will not be able to leave. However, the students will always graduate, and if the old dog wants to maintain its influence in the circle, it must continue to UGC and attract new fans, but all this is eventually defeated:
The first reason is that because the new students are getting rid of everyone, the intake of new fans is not so easy . If you absorb new fans, do you also suspect that they are real students (or marketing number?);
Second, because the input-output ratio of the creation is reduced, it is not as good as writing something from micro-blogs. It is not as good as people’s organized marketing numbers to manage their personal accounts . The most frightening thing is that it is also often exposed to the risk of cyber violence siege. When the true identity of fresh fans and conscientious UGC are unsustainable, this platform for you in addition to be considered a feeling, there is no reason to rely on not go?
However, please note that we must pay attention to the fact that Chen Yizhou’s boss has done three things with obvious advantages:
First, releasing identity verification can quickly increase the number of users for each person and immediately compete with Weibo on the same track;
Secondly, letting the public homepage allow the entry of the marketing number can quickly enrich the contents of the news feed. It can also introduce some institutional users to take advantage of the development and create an ecological, microblogging Blue V, WeChat public number, know the institutional account is not Is that right?
Thirdly, everyone copied a lot of functions and what kind of fires were copied. This is at least established in probability theory. What fire indicates how many times he passed the “market verificationâ€, so if you read a large probability, you may follow a fire, not ?
These three things are essentially a matter of doing everything possible to focus on short-term data growth, pursuing a beautiful data , and minimizing the risk of uncertainty through plagiarism.
Yes, you are not misunderstood. From the author's point of view, this type of merchant speculation that highly emphasizes short-term data and highly emphasizes deterministic and low-risk attitudes has sent everyone to the grave . Only in each battle of this mentality, the data will be very beautiful. They will all be explosives and growth hackers. They will not be able to win all the battles, but will increasingly lose the entire war.
(B) Happy Network
So happy network? The earliest impression was the powerful “hunger marketing†. The author did not use the Colonel's intranet for a long time. The happy network appeared. However, due to the need to invite emails and Chen Yizhou's fake fun, I couldn't tell what it was for a long time. This made it a dragon in the rivers and lakes. Legend has it that my heart longs for a long time. At that time, the feeling was that Kaixin.com was popular and it was a high-force presence. Most people would not be able to use it. The future must be a product that everyone would use, and China’s facebook. It can be seen that this “hungry marketing†at the beginning was very successful and produced a powerful explosive potential.
Finally, one day, I registered for Kaixin.com. At that time, I discovered that the company's colleagues were all on the top. The other department's white-collar women and beauty, the marketing department's little girl, and the interface gameplay were all similar to the school. So the idea and plan were started. It is also very simple: like writing in the school, sending some articles, photos and the like written with heart, showing your talents and tastes, and building your own circle. Whatever was sent by everyone at the time, they would all be transferred here (and will also go to space, Century, 51, etc.), but the results are completely different :
On the one hand, as a newcomer to the workplace, what is sent out is rarely read by old colleagues and is rarely read.
On the other hand, due to the unique culture at the time of the Chinese workplace, almost no one will send original articles. Everyone is sending chicken soup, health, and national events like the ones of today's friends.
UGC's motivation is gone. Then play the game. Yes, in my opinion, the second point of happy netfire is the game. It is accurate to say that it is very suitable for light social games among colleagues . Slaking trades and grabbing parking spaces until the final sweep of Tiannan Haibei steals food. Are explosion models! However, the self-proclaimed author always feels that these popular explosion games are too low to really immerse them... It was at this time that Weibo appeared.
We reopened the case of Kaixin.com and broke out in the highly successful "Hungry Mystery Marketing." Maintaining its stickiness is a "game." Through a series of highly explosive social games, people are detonated again and again. Activate the crowd and occupy their time.
Yes, if everyone is occupied based on the UGC-based interaction, then the happy network is based on the interaction of explosive games. At that time, the effect seems to be the same, and it brings users continuous use. For Kaixin, it also brought about a sudden increase in short-term data again and again.
Can the effect be really the same?
The more UGC users have on the SNS platform, the stronger the UGC’s motivation, the higher his sense of belonging and transfer costs, and gradually he is immersed and inseparable. However, the game, especially Kaixin.com, is a mild game. The continuous use of the user does not increase his transfer costs. Instead, the fun is “decreasing the marginal benefit.†Therefore, the upsurge is often a sporty one. In a wave, as long as you continue to make new and more exciting games, the data will always rise, but as long as one day you can't do it ...
Or, the game you made was plagiarized quickly, because in fact you are also plagiarism . This is what happened later. QQ has always followed suit promptly for the first time, making Tencent one of the most profitable game companies in China. At the same time, it eroded Kaixin.com's “game bonusâ€, making it a limited energy for each explosive promotion. It has become an offensive and offensive, but it is impossible to threaten Tencent's relationship.
Companies that take advantage of UGC and the gradual rise of the interest atmosphere are often slow companies. They used to have campuses, watercress, and know-how. When Kaixin.com defines the strategic path as a "explosive game," when Kaixin.com's UGC experience is far inferior to playing games, his fate is already doomed, because light games are almost certainly not a transfer cost. The moat mode will not be built. You only have to bet on every game you launch . Of course we know it is almost impossible. This kind of serial explosion will only fail one day, or there will be quick follow-up but with many times the precipitation ability of the opponent ... ... then UGC really can not do it in the workplace, to see people in the British engrossing and ah.
So happy nets died? Not at all. It wasn’t him that almost became, it was Weibo.
(3) Sina Weibo
Let's look at Sina Weibo again.
From the day when “New Weekly†launched the “Micro Age†special issue, the Weibo era has arrived. The author was one of the earliest microblog controllers. At that time, he really immersed himself in the microblogging world every day. In the office, he brushed until 10 o'clock in the evening and remembered that he was leaving work. The fingers were constantly refreshing, forwarding, and refreshing. Forwarding... Unlike later WeChat emphasizing “private attributesâ€, Weibo emphasizes “public life†most. He is like a square.
This kind of "public life" is, in concrete terms, "the pleasure of approaching or even becoming a public figure" and "the YY pleasure of participating in public events."
We all know that the biggest difference between Sina Weibo and Fanyi is to emphasize the introduction of celebrity big V. It seems that at that time it was required that every employee must pull in 5 big V, otherwise there was no year-end bonus. Therefore, the experience of this time is unprecedented. Those celebrities who have been above and above are all suddenly appearing on Weibo. They are just like ordinary people, and they often even communicate with each other (because there are not many users at the time). They have come back.) It also has a lot of impact. I'm the one who talked to celebrities! At the same time, due to fewer early adopters, relatively simple atmosphere, and low cost of UGC, if you send something of good quality, you may really become a topical person. Really everyone is from the media. I remember that the author was also the grassroots of the city at that time. The top 30 of the list. So Weibo at that time gave people a great deal of hope. Not only could they approach public figures, but they could become public figures in time. This prosperous feeling fully liberated the repressed desire for expression.
However, unlike everyone's UGC communication and Kaixin.com's explosive money game, the main scene of Weibo was "the first time to pay attention to and participate in public events." When there was an incident on the Wenzhou line, the city administration killed anyone. earthquake! Every day, we always pay attention to these hot events. We always look forward to the progress of each step. We will immediately forward new information as soon as it appears.
It has to be said that Weibo may be the hotbed of the earliest mass production of keyboards. The masses lacking the “plaza experience†on weekdays are like chicken blood on Weibo, and they quickly participate in various public events. Everyone holds a belief in the belief that China now has many problems, but as long as we voice and relay on Weibo, everything will gradually become better. Each of our clicks is part of this grand transformation.
Another early advantage of Weibo is "better content quality and illusion of omnipotence."
Because at the beginning we didn’t know what the water army, Duan Zizhi, and the marketing number were all serious about trying to convey information in 140 words to attract attention, so often ten things look like there are always 3 or 4 items that you are interested in. , and micro-said contests and the like have brought a lot of impressive content. At the same time, the functions of Weibo are getting more and more, but we are not used to the complicated interface on the PC. We really don't think this is a problem. At that time, what was the concept of “big suicide if the product was too large and too heavy?†Until WeChat appears.
The myth of Weibo did not end long after Li Kaifu wrote "Microblogging Changes China."
Overnight, we found that celebrities on Weibo began to ignore people, and even operated their account is not their own, the thrill of approaching celebrities gradually disappeared, and the "Matthew Effect" with celebrities broke out - Han Han "Hello" has been cited for millions of copies, but if you write one paragraph for one, nobody cares.
This Matthew effect then appears between the average user and the marketing number. Your intention to write a piece of feedback obtained is far less than a piece of marketing boosted by the Naval forces zombie powder. Do you still want to write it?
Then, the thrill of participating in public events gradually decreased, and the public event became an endless network of violence. It was also accompanied by the fact that the head finally put down a heavy hand and gradually subsided. It turned out to be a game dream.
Finally, one day, 50 consecutive brush on Weibo still can't see one you like. You've been reluctant to send anything again. This time you know that you should go to WeChat.
In this case, we will find that Weibo is really catching up with the good momentum. It is really a step away from building a brand new “public†relationship chain around public figures and Blue V, just like everyone’s. The campus "relationship chain system does. However, he was too impatient and greedy. In order to drastically increase the user data, he completely ignored the shaping of the community atmosphere. As long as he brought in a surge of data, the drones, the water army, the marketing number, and the zombie powder will make you go, and finally one day the user data will surge. It does not bring about the diminishing marginal cost of the large-scale network effect. Instead, it brings about the “decreasing marginal benefit†of the user experience. It is too late to manage. The rapid development of functional development, one-sided emphasis on the implementation of high and powerful, and the development of functional control and precise WeChat formed a good correspondence.
Ordinary users due to functional experience and more use of WeChat is only the beginning of the disaster, when the big V people have found the WeChat public number bonus higher and then transferred to WeChat, microblogging arrived.
Second, today, history is still repeating itselfWe reviewed these three classic cases. They all had data explosions and became explosions. They all had high hopes that the stars were holding the moon. They all had a really good experience and atmosphere... but in the end everything was overwhelming, and it was like this. The story is repeated in the era of the mobile Internet, but later social media appliers interpret this process more quickly, die quickly, and their demise is also abrupt.
In 2016, the myth of social explosions is still being staged. At the beginning of the year, the anonymous mini-games that your friends remembered were just popular in the circle of friends. You took selfies from me and started to push in QQ space, and faceu's face-changing video became a trend. Until recently, Plato’s personality tag was fired... In the population Dividends have been exhausted today, making explosives become a capability, viral marketing growth hackers become a fashion. As of now, the author is still unable to evaluate the success or failure of these detonations, and he deeply agrees with this approach. After all, capital companies are essentially profit-driven, and the ability to bring user surges with the lowest cost of acquisition is a matter of skill. There is no doubt that I am full of respect for these initiators.
However, if one day we measure the success or failure of these detonations, there must be some very clear indicators:
The core value of a friend's impression is the impressive impression wall. Has the user deposited more personal information on it and is like his own "milestone, propaganda field"? Whether the platform can accumulate a huge user database and build people's Baidu search. Anybody's information can be found in the above. Can search for people on any condition? The production and precipitation of this impression data are the core indicators.
Is the same community system more enriched by the influx of people, or is everyone just making selfies, just for the "painting self-timer" tooling function that runs out? Does the same show the value of its infinite channel and function because of the influx of crowds, which in turn forms a joint force to create a virtual spiritual city? The core indicators are the full activation of the channel system and the transmission of values, habit formation, and a sense of belonging.
Faceu's face-changing video has been popular in the north and south, but now after the 95 favorite QQ also began to change face video, faceu can build a new post-95 relationship chain outside the video tool? Can they develop the habit of using faceu to IM? Can they develop the habit of watching a story video? The experience of branding with faceu is good, but after turning over to the brand, can it really form an effective one-on-one unfamiliarity? Any major breakthrough in any of the above four points can be regarded as the success of the core indicators.
What about Plato?
We certainly admit that the use of an increased hacking approach, even if it did not bring about a surge in the use of the product's core scene features, merely brought about a sharp increase in product exposure, which merely brought about an increase in rankings, which was also a victory, but to a great extent It's just a victory for operating and growing hackers . There is indeed good data in the short term. You can talk to the investors. You can share the successful experience with PR. However, you should know that this is not the victory of the entire war.
There is nothing wrong with growth hacking. As the book “Growing Hacking†comes up, he said that he should be built on the basis of excellent products, otherwise the huge increase will be fleeting and of little significance. Growth hacking is your tipping point, and the product and business model is your depth. You have no depth, there is no stickiness, there are no barriers, there is no moat, this is the key. Whether it is a beautiful growth curve or a fast-paced death as a seismic line, here is the watershed.
Third, prospects, standards have to followWell, perhaps you have to say, the author, ah, what you are talking about is too empty. What are the barriers and moats? What is this thing?
Let's say something solid. In Buffett's theory, the so-called moat is often a technology patent, transfer costs, large network advantages and cost advantages. In Trout's positioning theory, the essence of market competition is to segment the user's mind based on category logic, and to seize the commanding heights of the user's mind. Do not underestimate these traditional business theories and say “Internet thinking is the kingâ€. The development in recent years has fully proved that even today they are fully applicable.
So if you are a social community or similar product, these indicators are applicable:
1. Is there a core value of delivering products: Core functions and core experiences brought about by core functions based on core scenarios.
As an example, if today's In position their core value as a figure-making and sticker tool, then it is definitely a great success. However, if the core value is defined as a social community like Instagram, it can only be said that the current core value is very limited.
For another example, if Plato is a personality tagging tool, then this marketing is too successful, but if he is actually a faceless social networking tool, please don't have anything to do with the personality tag... Of course someone would say that growth hackers are just Increase the exposure of the product, let users take the initiative to search for you. Can users be more willing to download you? Today's users have been too lazy to use H5 to complete the use of only H5, no more than the next APP to the point, even if it is difficult to learn. Reminding that merely passing on core values ​​may not be meaningful, this core value has to be strong enough to bring about a surge in efficiency that may make users dependent.
2. Does it form a relationship chain and build network advantages? This is particularly important for social products. Even if N people download you, they do not constitute a relationship chain between them, do not form a network advantage, then how much difference do you have with a tool or game? Why do users think that QQlow burst then they can not do without it, because the relationship chain Yeah, you leave alone, and may lose contact with people around you, so that people around you can follow you to leave, this is not realistic. Of course, the relationship chain of WeChat's acquaintances has been difficult to shake, so you can try to do circle relationship chain, community relationship chain and so on.
3. Is there a transfer cost? As Lao Pa of "Emotional Thinking" pointed out, many products are "hand-made products". You need to use toilet paper at high frequencies, but you will not feel any sense of belonging when you run out of steam. So a very important point of a social product is whether it can allow users to continue to “invest†for you. Personal information can also be precipitated. UGC is also worth mentioning. The relationship chain can also belong. It is like WeChat. One day you don’t like it so much. But the cost of leaving Nyima is too scary.
4, whether it will bring "information noise" side effects , it seems that the data is rising, but a new wave of influx of new users has undermined the product's experience and atmosphere, and eventually the core user began to leave, so evaporative cooling occurs continuously, Like on Weibo.
5. In the end, there is no preemption of the user's mind. In their minds, they form a neural circuit that “to... use youâ€. Positioning theory and category logic are particularly important in today's information explosion, because users are not willing to make too many choices and considerations. Often, one category is willing to remember the APP. When I am acquainted with communication and use WeChat, we will not use rice to talk to Yixin. What's even more frightening is that there are so many categories that users are willing to remember, so the number of APPs on a mobile phone screen is generally quite a few.
Finally, let's face up to the reality. In today's depopulated demographics, the days of developing an app that can explode users, massively finance, and embark on the peak of life to meet Bai Fumei are gone forever. The reality is often that Even if they tried their best to increase the number of users, the increase in this kind of data is also far from the final victory. It is often called "increase in size . " The story of Kaixin.com has always been staged. People today always push everything to operations when the product form is not bad. However, in the case of fundamental incomplete solutions, they can only win the battle of data explosion. The battle to win massive financing was repeated once and for all, but in the end it lost the entire war. The data is rigid, and the data may also be a bubble that can take you into the sea, or you may accidentally betray your cognition.
We emphasize DAU, emphasize retention, emphasizing buried detection, because the reality is so cruel. Do you still remember those products that had exploded in the past two years and how many are still in use? Concerned about the growth of hackers, we must pay more attention to the things behind them. Do not one day suddenly hear the name of a certain product. We are all lamenting - Oh, how is this thing still alive?
I am Zhang Jun, a product of Ye Luzi's product dog, who started her business in Shanghai, tested and polished brand-new consumption to the interest community, operated the sns lab community, event marketing researchers, micro-signals: biohazard2015, welcomed the blending and arguing.
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