In a blink of an eye, the vigorous 2016 has gone, from the Charity Law to the Internet financial supervision, and then to the renminbi to join the SDR, China's economy can be described as ups and downs. In the past year, the car has also been a very important industry, especially in the first two months of 2016.
First, on December 15th, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced that the purchase tax on passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6L and below in 2017 will be increased from 5% to 7.5%, and will be restored to 10% from 2018, followed by December 21st. The New Deal of the car was officially introduced, and the market access for the car was strictly required. Coupled with a series of new regulations on the restriction of the country, the country and the second car, which were introduced at the end of November, the auto market immediately responded and was quite shocked. Judging from the new regulations that will be officially implemented in 2017, the 2017 auto market will surely be a big move, and there are so many things to watch.
On December 21, 2016, Beishangguang announced the new rules for the new car on the same day. Among them, Beijing and Shanghai have clear requirements for the home registration of drivers. Beijing has set a five-month transition period for the New Deal for the Internet, and Shanghai and Guangzhou will be implemented immediately. Then what kind of network car market will be after the landing? Will the network car be drastically reduced? Is it harder and more expensive to take a taxi?
So how many nets are suitable? It is understood that from the perspective of a city management and carrying capacity, it is appropriate to use about 8% to 15% of taxis. Take Beijing as an example. At present, the number of taxis in Beijing is around 66,000. In this way, it is more appropriate to keep the number of vehicles in Beijing's network around 10,000.
However, according to statistics, in June 2015, the number of cars in Beijing was close to 100,000, not to mention 2016 after a year of rapid development. Therefore, the number of vehicles in Beijing is much larger than the number of vehicles.
As we all know, the network car is a labor-intensive industry, and Beijing and Shanghai have been very large cities that need to strictly control the population in recent years. The traffic and environment are relatively burdensome. Therefore, it is necessary to strictly limit the threshold of the network car market. This is also the reason why we must adhere to the Beijing Jing brand.
Therefore, after the official launch of the new regulations in 2017, a large number of private cars will exit the network car market, and the number of car-related vehicles will be greatly reduced. Coupled with the requirements of driving age and car displacement, the network car market will gradually end the barbaric era and be properly regulated.
Aspect 2: 2017 auto market may grow 6%In addition to the network car, many consumers who want to buy a car or change the car may be more concerned about the trend and situation of the car market. On December 15, 2016, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice to the public. From January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2017, passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less were deducted by 7.5. The vehicle tax is levied on the % tax rate. Since January 1, 2018, the vehicle purchase tax will be levied at a statutory rate of 10%; in addition, from January 1, 2017, all light-duty gasoline vehicles and heavy-duty diesel vehicles manufactured, imported, sold and registered must be In line with the requirements of the National Five Standards, and at the same time vigorously support the replacement of automobiles, coupled with the limit of the national standard two cars, it can be expected that the new car market in China will usher in a new situation in 2017.
In this regard, Xu Haidong, assistant secretary-general of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, predicts that if the 1.6L policy continues, the annual sales volume of automobiles in 2017 will be 29.68 million units, an increase of 6% year-on-year; if the policy exits, the annual sales volume will be 28.56 million units, a year-on-year growth rate of 2.0. %.
Subsequently, in 2017, the purchase of passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters and below was 7.5%. It can be seen that the 1.6L policy has been extended to some extent.
In addition, since January 1, 2018, the vehicle purchase tax will be reinstated at a statutory rate of 10%. In 2017, 7.5% of the vehicle purchase tax concessions will remain attractive to car buyers. Therefore, the 1.6L policy will continue to benefit. 2017 car market.
At the same time, the implementation of the relevant provisions of the country, the second country and the fifth country will also benefit the auto market this year. In this regard, Yan Jinghui, deputy general manager of the former Beijing Beichen Asian Games Village Automobile Trading Market Center, said that the scrapping policy of 400,000 Taiwan, one country, two old cars will benefit the 2017 auto market. According to the budget, if 400,000 units choose to voluntarily upgrade or continue to use according to 10% of the owners, there should be nearly 300,000 units to choose to scrap the update, which will bring 300,000 units to the market this year. In addition to the predicted release of 300,000 units of a country, two old cars, Yan Jinghui believes that there are more than 210 new stocks, that is, there will be a large number of old cars under 9 years into the renewal period.
As for the introduction of the New Deal for the Internet, it also affected the new car market. Because, with the increase of the access threshold for the network, the organization will buy the car in order to seize the market, and the owner will change the car to join the platform.
Therefore, a 6% growth forecast is not impossible.
Look at the three used car market will not be sungAccording to the newly revised Regulations of the State of the People's Republic of China, starting from February 15, 2017, the following models of the National Standards for Emissions will also be prohibited from driving within the Beijing Fifth Ring Road; in addition, as of January 1, 2017, All vehicles must meet the requirements of the National 5th Standard.
The introduction of these policies seems to be a gravity strike on the used car market. After all, this regulation will involve nearly 400,000 old models produced before June 30, 2006, although the government has increased the corresponding subsidies, but for some luxury The version of the car owner is somewhat "inhuman" and has a bad loss.
Of course, the market's response is also extremely rapid, the price of used cars of such vehicles will plummet nearly half overnight, and many car owners are also "tears crying." In this regard, second-hand car dealers said that some second-hand car dealers in Beijing are still trying to reduce losses due to large-scale inventory pressure. The price of re-acquisition vehicles has dropped by 45% or more in one day, and some used car companies have clearly stated that this Class vehicles are no longer acquired, and customers can only go to scrapping channels. Car dealers admitted that at least 10% of the 400,000 old used cars were less than 30% of the market's used car market. Customers could only lose money, or they would not enter the city.
For them, the government's subsidies and the nearly half of the price reduction of used cars are equivalent to a drop in the bucket, and it is impossible to scrap. According to estimates, the proportion of this part of the model accounted for about 25% of the total, the scale is close to 100,000.
Of course, the used car market in Beijing will not be depressed. After all, with the increasingly strict environmental protection policies in Beijing, many car owners will choose to update the replacement vehicles in advance to replace them with new ones.
Watching four new energy vehicles enter the fast laneWhen it comes to environmental protection, you have to mention new energy vehicles. Although the new energy subsidy policy has tightened in 2016 and the competition for new energy production licenses has become increasingly fierce, with the normalization of Beijing's single and double numbers, some small cars will need new ones to purchase new energy turnover vehicles, according to Beijing. The current new policy, the replacement of electric vehicles with fuel vehicles, has the same license plate number. In addition, the most beneficial of the 400,000 countries, one country, two old cars, the new energy vehicles. Therefore, the new energy vehicle market in Beijing will continue to be active in 2017.
In response to this, data surveys have shown that nearly 20% of fuel owners are interested in purchasing electric vehicles. They are actively consulting about the purchase of new energy vehicles with fuel vehicles. This is undoubtedly a good information for the new energy car market.
This is also recognized by PricewaterhouseCoopers. Recently, PricewaterhouseCoopers released the blue book of China's auto industry, "China's Auto Market: Witnessing Change". According to the Blue Book, China's new energy vehicles sold 330,000 units in 2015, far ahead of other markets in the world. In addition, as the government is expected to continue to subsidize new energy vehicles in 2016 and subsequent years, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will continue to grow. It is estimated that the annual output of China's new energy vehicles will reach 1.85 million units in 2022, that is, the compound annual growth rate from 2015 to 2022 will reach 28%.
In addition, according to the previously released “Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehiclesâ€, by 2020, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in China will account for more than 7% of total vehicle sales, which means that China’s new energy vehicles will be sold at least in 2020. To reach 2.1 million vehicles. This means that the output of China's new energy vehicles will not be lower than the production forecast data of PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Therefore, since the beginning of this year, although the new energy vehicle market has been affected by factors such as “cheat†and policy swing, the growth rate has not reached expectations, but China’s new energy vehicle market has entered the fast lane of development.
Watching the five autopilot market is the future of the carIn addition to the above-mentioned traditional cars, one has to mention the autopilot market, which is being regarded by the industry as the future of the Chinese auto industry. Experts predict that the market share of self-driving vehicles will reach 15% to 20% by 2030. In this regard, PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that by 2025, 71% of the cars sold will be equipped with automatic driving assistance systems, and by 2030, the market share of self-driving vehicles will reach 15% to 20%.
This is also why, in the context of the industry has not yet fully developed, in order to occupy favorable terrain in the future, Google, Baidu and other powerful groups have been developing one of the important reasons for their own autonomous driving technology. Of course, many manufacturers, R&D institutions, and policy makers are accelerating their research and development. Many automakers, whether luxury or economical, are constantly implementing autopilot technology through the assembly of expensive intelligent networking technologies to enhance their competitiveness. In particular, luxury brand manufacturers, in order to remain competitive and avoid price dilution, will not increase the overall price of vehicle sales due to these new features.
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