Can New Energy Automotive Weaning Enterprises Stand Up

In 2014, new energy vehicles ushered in explosive growth, with a year-on-year growth of more than 300%. However, in the first two months of 2015, although the domestic new energy vehicle market still maintained rapid growth year-on-year, it appeared to be weaker than last year's grand occasion. According to the data, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in February reached 6,190 and 6,045 vehicles respectively, but in November and December 2014, the sales of new energy vehicles have reached 6677 vehicles and 14,000 vehicles.

In view of this, some people think that this is partly due to the influence of the Spring Festival in February, and on the other hand to the “back-to-front food” caused by subsidies for new energy vehicles (reduced by 10% from 2013). , caused by the overdraft of the market.

“No single industry can sustain its subsidies for a long period of time. If after such a long period of subsidies, several top-notch companies have not yet emerged, it means that this road will not work.” National 863 “Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles” Wang Binggang, head of the major project supervision and advisory expert group, had publicly expressed to the media.

In the context of imperfect infrastructure, product performance, and costs that have not yet met consumer expectations, policy support to drive the market is a path that all countries in the world are experiencing when promoting new energy vehicles. However, the maturity of a market is obvious. We cannot rely solely on policies and subsidies. Recently, industry sources have revealed that, in addition to the current mechanism for retreating slopes, the state may cancel subsidies for new energy vehicles by 2020. Then, in a short period of five years, can the existing new energy production enterprises do large-scale production as soon as possible so as to achieve effective cost sharing, and eventually leave the policy support and fly alone in 2020?

How much can the cost be reduced in 5 years?

This is a question that may not be precisely answered by all industry professionals. Although from a bicycle standpoint, the high cost of new energy vehicles stems more from its powered battery. Prior to this, a person in charge of a new energy vehicle production company once told the reporter of the “First Financial Daily” that in general hybrid vehicles, the battery cost can account for about 30% of the total vehicle cost, while pure electric vehicles can account for the highest proportion. half. In other words, if the cost of the battery is effectively controlled, the cost of the entire vehicle will also decline year by year. For this reason, prior to this, the Japanese New Energy Industry Technology Development Agency (NEDO) proposed to reduce the average cost of lithium batteries to 30,000 yen/kWh by 2015 and to 20,000 yen by 2020. / kWh, dropped to 10,000 yen/kWh before and after 2030.

In China, third-party statistics show that the price of power batteries has dropped from 2010 to the present, but vehicle prices have not seen such a significant year-on-year decline. This is for the above-mentioned person in charge of new energy production companies told reporters that the fundamental reason is that the scale has not been able to effectively apportion costs. In order to research and develop new energy vehicles, in recent years, major domestic manufacturers have invested huge amounts of money. For example, in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, its R&D investment for new energy vehicles reached 10 billion, and recently, Chang’an The car also said that it will invest 18 billion yuan in the next 10 years to enter the field of new energy vehicles. In addition, the production and sales of new energy vehicles must be guaranteed, and labor costs and equipment costs will increase. With billions and billions of investments in hand, it is clear that not thousands of sales can be effectively shared.

Therefore, in his opinion, how much the cost of new energy vehicles can be reduced in five years depends on what the overall market size can achieve. “If we don’t speak of millions, if we can achieve our initial target of 500,000 units in 2015, the cost of new energy vehicles may be reduced to half of the current level.” This person estimates.

Why is it difficult to increase the scale?

In the promotion of new energy vehicles, the relevant state departments did not make much effort. The central and local double subsidy can be up to 100,000 yuan or more. Policies including priority road rights, free parking, and free licenses are also in full swing. Therefore, why has the scale of new energy vehicles been hard to increase substantially?

The imperfection of infrastructure is the most important reason that the industry believes. However, apart from that, other multiple causes cannot be ignored. “Before this, the national policy on the support of new energy vehicles is not as strong as it is now, and mainstream production companies do not have much investment and research and development enthusiasm.” Su Nan (a pseudonym), an independent brand leader, believes that in his It seems that for the majority of joint-venture brands, it has already occupied a relatively stable share in the traditional market. From the market level, it is difficult to have the motivation to do research and development and investment in new energy vehicles. Therefore, this market has always existed. There is a "wait and see" attitude. The independent brands had previously suffered from the cold market, and the policy has not been clear, so they did not dare to invest rashly.

"The unclear and unsustainable policies are indeed one of the important reasons for the slow development of new energy vehicles." Car analyst Zhang Zhiyong believes. The Suzhou Kinglong Automobile Wang Yue (a pseudonym) had previously told reporters that in the field of passenger cars, the country’s new energy support policy has oscillated. “Before subsidizing traditional hybrid power, the subsidies for hybrid power were later removed and plug-in hybrids were reduced. The subsidy of power will shift its focus to pure electric power, which will allow production companies to follow the trend. It is difficult to realize the accumulation of technology and waste of resources.

In addition, according to Cui Dongshu, deputy secretary-general of the National Association for the Promotion of International Alliances, the reason why the new energy vehicles are not widely used for a long time is that the country’s subsidy policy is biased. “The allowances for commercial vehicles such as passenger cars are too high and they are The relative shortage of vehicles." He gave an example. Before the country's subsidy for plug-in hybrid buses was as high as 400,000 yuan, and the central and local double subsidies for pure electric buses can reach a total of millions. In his opinion, the millions of subsidies can not only effectively offset the increase in costs between new energy and traditional power, but also "free" for the company to amortize part of the remaining costs. Therefore, some of the previous companies are "lying subsidies." Go to bed." Can be used as evidence is that later the state subsidies for this type of car reduced to 250,000 yuan, but the company is still able to withstand the public domain of the promotion objectives can still be completed. "This is worth considering. Is it too much subsidy in this area? No need to adjust?" said Cui Dongshu.

In his view, the idea of ​​promoting new energy vehicles from the public sector is correct, but the demand in the entire public sector is not large, but to be large-scale, it should focus on the support of passenger cars. Increase the subsidy for bicycles for passenger cars.

Hope lies in the pattern of breakthrough?

Only relying on policy adjustments, in fact, the rapid increase in the effectiveness of the scale is also very limited. Therefore, Zhang Zhiyong believes that the development of new energy vehicles should be broadened and real market issues should be completely returned to the market. For example, can the country cancel the “pilot promotion” model and allow consumers in all cities to have access to new energy vehicles? Expanding the market base; In addition, whether low-speed electric vehicles can also strengthen their supervision and consider them to be included in the promotion of new energy, there is a control, a number of routes at the same time.

In addition, according to Zhang Haibin, a partner of Hejun Consulting, it is necessary to advance the development of new energy vehicles more quickly, and innovation should be promoted in the idea of ​​promotion, instead of sticking to the previous marketing ideas. Indeed, in the eyes of people in the industry, new energy vehicles are not only innovations in the traditional manufacturing sector, but also shoulder the burden of reform in the entire automotive circulation field. Under the background of the sweeping of Internet thinking and the rise of young consumer groups, how to balance the cost of new energy vehicles through the sharing model is also an issue that the whole industry should consider. “A few years ago, when companies started a time-share lease in the field of new energy vehicles, the industry was not particularly optimistic, but at the moment, the time-sharing leasing model has achieved initial results, and the micro-transport model implemented in Hangzhou has gradually been accepted and viewed. "Cargo consultant car industry analyst Wang Jiahong told the "First Financial Daily" reporter.

In his view, the current new energy industry is in a “barbaric growth period” in which all over the world is fighting. In the future, companies that can take a dominant position in the new energy vehicle market will not necessarily lead in production and manufacturing. It is an innovative business model. It is precisely for this reason that new energy automobile manufacturers including SAIC, BAIC, BYD, and the rest of the car companies are all making breakthroughs in the “model”.

In addition to joint car rental industry giants to start car rental business of new energy vehicles, SAIC is also trying to join hands with schools in the time-sharing of new energy vehicles, and in addition, joint large-scale enterprises to carry out cross-border marketing is also an important way of its current promotion. . Just a few days ago, SAIC held a strategic cooperation signing ceremony with Shanghai Yunfeng Group Automobile Industry Development Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the Yunfeng Group, holding a purchase agreement for 2,000 plug-in models of SAIC Roewe 550plug-in. It is understood that these new energy vehicles will be mainly used for official vehicles and financing lease vehicles of real estate companies under the Greenland Group. Through SAIC, SAIC hopes to further increase its visibility in various segments. At the same time, the two parties are also involved in auto finance, used car trading and financial services, car rental, car networking, and related internet finance. Fields reached strategic cooperation intentions. At the same time, SAIC will also further increase the production capacity of new energy vehicles this year, from the previous monthly production of 1,000 units to 5,000 units, to ease market demand.

In addition to promotion through leasing and other models, BAIC has also attempted to join hands with power battery manufacturers and private charging facility companies to integrate and lay out the entire industry chain to create systems and comprehensive advantages to fully promote the marketization of its new energy automotive products. It is understood that this year, BAIC New Energy will challenge the sales target of 20,000 vehicles, and to achieve this goal, its dealer network system across the country is also rapidly implemented. Not long ago, BAIC's second new energy source in Shanghai Shanghai Ruizhong, an auto experience store, officially opened its doors, adopting a free experience model to increase contact and acceptance with consumers. According to the plan, this store will have sales of new energy vehicles reaching 2,000 vehicles during the year, while the overall sales target in Shanghai will reach 5,000.

BYD, which had achieved good results last year, will introduce a number of models to enrich its product line this year in addition to further increasing its battery capacity. In addition to actively deploying the domestic market, BYD will join hands with Uber and other car rental companies to expand new energy sources. Automotive overseas market.