Kaixin.com has not been able to socialize. What kind of implied law of detonation is implied?

Lei Feng network press: The author of this article wood Liang (micro-signal: callme4004008), non-famous e-commerce trader, Zhong Lian Da Group COO.

One of the words of Kaixin.com's latest story can be said: It has successfully transformed into a profitable mobile game company. Early shareholders and founder Cheng Binghao will withdraw. Shenzhen listed company will become its controlling shareholder, and Zhou Bin will become the new owner. The actual controller of the company.

Compared with this outcome, I believe that it is more valuable for the eight-year history of Kaixin. In these eight years, we can almost see the ups and downs of China’s social field and evolve its history. Can not help but think deeply: Where is the joy and loss of Kaixin.com? What thoughts leave behind us?

What is the happy net in your eyes?

I have read an article before. The article in Xiong Jiagui's recollection is that the initial hot spot of Kaixin.com seems very easy. “I don’t think we were so hard or amazing, and the website was so hot.”

The chief architect of the happy network is also the first user of Kaixin.com. In his eyes, the reason why Kaixin.com was able to rise quickly was because the team of dozens of people who came first from Sina.com had accumulated sufficient technology and product capabilities as early as Sina. Therefore, it was not too hard to develop. Happy network.

I believe Xiong Jiagui's point of view can explain the success of Kaixin. After all, the social network at that time was not Blue Ocean. However, this does not cover the linear reason why many of the product shapes, user experiences, business models, etc. discussed in the current discussion cover the hidden causes of technology.

Cold Start and "Friends' Law" in Social Areas

Since I have run two projects in the medical and financial fields in the past two years, I used an example to compare with Kaixin.com.

In September 2014, a medical APP was transformed from a patient community to a doctor-patient communication management tool and began to expand the doctor community. Four months later, nearly 70,000 doctors registered on the APP. The data analysis shows that doctors interact with each other, and the first batch of doctors' recommendation information can always influence doctor groups beyond 12 degrees. The social network visually refers to each friend (such as relatives, friends, classmates, and colleagues) that each user can directly cover and affect. The past social network has a 6-degree theory, that is, 6 people can find any one of them. . Twelve degrees means that influence has been passed on to 12 people outside of the friends chain.

This picture is the result of user share and conversion data analysis

Through the subsequent reflow data, it can be seen that the number of doctors affecting friends in the social network is becoming more and more. Users are increasingly “lazy” with actions (such as subscribing and opening accounts) and increasingly relying on friend recommendations (sharing is one of the recommended performances) to make judgments. The time saved is invested in good applications and services that are approved by friends. This change and influence make big waste a normal one.

On the other hand, Kaixin.com has not only limited the number of friends, but also set up a link that must be approved by you. Everyone pays attention to me. I must click and confirm. When my friends reached 10,000, I received hundreds of game push messages from my friends every day and hundreds of requests to confirm my friend's request. I have no way to normally view the information of the friends I want to follow. Home is also a mess of all these friends' posts. I hope to be concerned, but I also hope to only see the posts of people I am interested in.

Wasting in the social world is everywhere. The massive consumption of users is also a waste of information appearing in front of them. A large number of messages have been crossed by one finger and there is absolutely no chance for them to stay. With the current WeChat message, information on some groups is no longer open for reading. The detonation event is accompanied by the same phenomenon: After the information flow on the social network is “sweeped”, a large number of users will quickly flock to a product and generate massive information sharing. This is the bonus that the social field has brought to us. For example, the “character label” test that was very hot in the circle of friends in the past time triggered the entire circle of friends in a short period of time and soon achieved the best results of cold start, but there was a lot of similar information. It will produce a reaction to drive the user.

Today, this phenomenon has been fully realized. In the abundant and flooding information, it is normal for users to go across a dozen lines of information with one finger at a time. If a piece of information is worthless, it will be ignored.

This is why many users open the homepage after Kaixin.com and find that a large number of friends are sharing the same content. In the PC era, Imagine the experience of moving across the finger like a mobile social network without causing a large number of users to open the front page for a few seconds. After the clock, they chose to close because there was too little valuable content or the cost of finding valuable content was too high.

The following figure shows the data shared by users before and after detonation of a certain application last year, which is almost the same as the fast and rapid decline of Kaixin.com. This can't help but think about whether the fast-decaying phenomenon in the social field can be traced. Is there a law that can be explored?

Looking at the "Fast Decay" Phenomenon and Law of Social Domain through Kaixin Net

From 2010 to 2012, it may be the most worthwhile period of time during the eight years of Kaixin. It has all the opportunities and all missed opportunities that have taken place in these two years. If we say that Kaixin has used an eight-year plan to develop an “N”-type development curve, the sloping line in the middle of N will have passed through from 2010 to 2012. In the past two years, Kaixin.com has been developing new products in a decisive manner and has been fully committed to innovation. Many new products have been developed. “Some internal tests are very general and have stopped. Some internal tests are very good, but also stopped. I do not know why.” According to Zhang Lei recalled.

Why, then, for two years, a team that has been skilled in the development of countless applications did not rekindle the new round of Kaixin.com?

There are two words in the social field that are important: one is "short" and one is "new."

Short law: It means that the less the user invests the time, the easier it is to detonate. Including the clicking action when using the service, understanding the brain power required for the service, etc., obtaining enjoyment from a certain service (including applications, activities, etc.), or solving a practical problem. For example, Kaixin.com's earliest stealing food, users can easily experience the entire process. In social networks, time is the most important cost and payment currency.

The following figure shows the breakdown of costs in the short law.

The new law: It means that the newer the game, the faster the detonation. Our alternative questioning method can be: "What kind of problems are solved by such applications or products, so that people can enjoy, experience, share, and spread word-of-mouth." This is a basic design question.

Kaixin.com is a species of the PC era. The ability of early teams is also based on the PC. However, Kaixin.com realizes that mobile is a very important place. In addition to migrating the social platform itself to mobile, the company has also developed some purely mobile-based stand-alone products. For example, a product that closely resembles WeChat - flying beans.

Flying beans and rice chat, Wechat is almost synchronized. However, according to me and the people who used the flying beans around me, they recalled that they would neither play nor feel useless. They were puzzled that Kaixin.com made such a product that resembled a short message. It didn't take long for flying beans. Until later used to WeChat, what the original "flying beans" means.

WeChat may not be the earliest or best at the time, but it is the only one that continues to be iteratively improved. This is why it eventually ran through similar products such as flying beans, rice chat, and so on. Kaixin.com has always failed to establish and accumulate core and prominent technologies and product development capabilities on the mobile terminal. This is the reason why Kaixin.com's mobile products have failed.

We can use the short law and the new law to ask questions about Kaixin's innovative products, and also ask questions about the products that we are currently engaged in project development.

1. Will the relevant information shared in the current development application and service contain strong sharing power and diffusion power and encourage everyone to share and interact in the social network? Whether this will lead to the emergence of the swiping phenomenon (refers to information about a certain application or service issued by friends in a certain period of time is flooded in front of the user). Which psychological needs of the users we meet will lead to the proliferation of information on these applications or services?

2. Successfully convert friends who see information through information sharing of applications or services. If you want to make friends only see information quickly and be transformed, there are obviously more factors that need to be learned and thought. How should this be done? Is the user's cost low enough? Is the application of the contact new enough? Because not everyone has a companion playing a mobile phone at the time of eating and can attract people at the same table.

3. What problems are solved by our products can make people enjoy and experience it. Is it possible for everyone to make "a big fish in a small pond"?

Finally, he put forward a thought: Whether it is happy network or WeChat, it was in the best condition of “starting point or tipping point” at first, but then WeChat achieved a zero-cost status through the spread of viruses, and the happy network became more and more. The bigger you do, the more you make it. The more you deviate from the track, why? Is the same for your current product?

I would like to use this article to commemorate the happy eight years that have passed.

This article is authorized by everyone to be released by the product manager in Lei Feng network (search "Lei Feng Net" public concern) . Reproduced without permission.