Foreword
Recently, the most attractive to everyone's attention, it must be the platform currency, and see the performance of various platform currency in the bear market, so that everyone feels that the wave of this wave of market.
Why can the platform currency get up?The currency reading network believes that in the current currency market, there are not many new capital stocks in the game, more and more people are beginning to pursue certain deterministic gains, although less than ten times the previous rate of return, but the annual percentage The dozens of returns have gradually become generally accepted by people without a good chance.
1. Is the platform currency a share?
The currency reading network does not think so.
What does an ordinary person purchase the shares of a traditional joint-stock company? He represented one ownership of the company, including dividends, voting rights, and residual asset allocation rights.
If you bought a platform currency, think about these rights?
1.1 Dividends:
Some platforms are repurchased and destroyed, and some platforms look at holdings for profit distribution.
It can be attributed to the fact that these platforms have the right to distribute dividends, but we think about it carefully.
The platform can be said to change and change. How do you ensure that the currency users who have purchased the platform currency always have this right?
Therefore, it cannot be guaranteed.
1.2 Voting rights:
No amount of money we buy will determine the direction of the platform.
The only voting right is to decide which currency to use.
This is not a voting right.
1.3 Residual Assets Allocation Rights:
Of course there is no such right, the platform does not, and the value of the currency is naturally gone.
Moreover, a few days ago, the prosecution lawsuits in which Sequoia and Coin had made an uproar, it can be seen that the platform has its own additional shares when financing. So those who really have the above rights are those big capital companies that invest in them.
Platform currency prices should be calculated according to traditional listed companies?The currency reading network still doesn't think so. Let's take a coin to give an example.
2.1 P/E Ratio Model:
In the last month, the average daily transaction volume of Coin is 15 billion.
At least 50% of the fee is calculated as profit. Each sale earns one time and earns 7.5 million per day.
Annual revenue: 7500000 * 360 = 2.7 billion
20% for shareholder dividends: 27 * 0.2 = 5.4 billion
Calculated by the average flow of 100 million, each BNB's annual profit: 5.4 yuan
High-tech rapid development, rapid growth in the industry, calculated at 50 times PE, bnb = $270
2.2 DCF build model:
We do not calculate the situation of user growth, etc. We use the discount rate of BNB only to calculate the cash flow.
One thousandth of the current fee
50% off the first year: 7.5 million per day, 2.7 billion per year
Second year 25%: Earn 11.25 million per day, 4.05 billion per year
12.5% ​​in the third year: 13.225 million per day, 4.725 billion per year
6.75% in the fourth year: Earn 13,978,500 per day, 5,03 billion per year
No discount for the fifth year: 15 million per day, 5.4 billion per year
Stable income after the fifth year
20% post-tax net profit conversion:
First year: 540 million; Second year: 810 million; Third year: 945 million; Fourth year: 1.007 billion; Fifth year: 1.08 billion After the fifth year: 1.08 billion
Discounted with 3% interest rate
PV = 524 million in the first year; PV = 7.63 in the second year; PV = 8.65 in the third year; PV = 8.95 in the fourth year; PV = 9.31 in the fifth year
Cash flow converted to present value = 5.24 + 7.63 + 8.65 + 8.95 + 9.31 + (10.8/0.03 - 10.8/1.03 - 10.8/ (1.03)^2 - 10.8/(1.03)^3 - 10.8/(1.03)^4 - 10.8/(1.03)^5) = 350.32 billion
Calculated by 200 million total shares, BNB = 350.32/2 = 175.16
Summary:According to the two valuation methods, the calculated BNB price is between 175 and 270 yuan, but it is worth mentioning that the calculated valuation methods are conservative estimates, especially the net profit, a conservative estimate of 20%, And only the fee income, not counting the currency charges, the future of the coin security created by the profits. Therefore, according to the valuation of traditional companies, such a profitable company, the price of a single BNB is far more than 270 yuan.
Is the price really underestimated so serious?Is this valuation really reasonable?
The currency can only be said here, so the valuation is certainly unreasonable.
Because self-recognition is not a smart person, most people who can think of can think of it.
Moreover, the market is the best valuation method, and the current price has been a comprehensive consideration of valuation evaluations and expectations.
Therefore, the conclusion that platform currency prices should be calculated according to traditional listed companies is certainly not reasonable.
Reasonable Judging Criteria for Token Price Levels: Supply and Demand RelationsSome people may find it strange that the price is the result of a balance between supply and demand:
Increased supply, unchanged demand, lower prices
Supply remains unchanged, demand increases, prices increase
These people all know, how do you judge the valuation?
The answer given by the currency reading network is that there is no specific way to judge and only the demand and supply can be studied within a certain period of time.
3.1 OKB
Why did OKB soar up recently? In my opinion, it is the increase in short-term demand given by the OKB platform.
I haven't bought OKB. I can only take the dividends from other people's posted OKBs to calculate and speculate:
April 20, OKB made a dividend, each OKB amount: 0.047
On April 27th, OKB paid dividends, each OKB amount: 0.0496
Rounding, calculated with 0.05
Can receive dividends every year: 0.05 * 52 = 2.6
According to OKB, 10 yuan, 20 yuan, 30 yuan, 40 yuan, 50 yuan are calculated annualized rate of return
Obtained separately: 26%, 13%, 8.67%, 6.5%, 5.2%
Therefore, when OKB's price is at 10 yuan, if we can get a 26% annual return, we should all choose to buy a little. The more people we find, the more people we buy will naturally rise in price.
Of course, after the introduction of the concept of currency, OKB's dividends have not been tracked. If you are interested, you can also buy an OKB to track earnings.
3.2 HT
HT is also the same, but he is not a dividend, but a voting rebate. I heard that when this round of voting is hot, the rebate can reach 5-7%. This is not a small amount. HT voting is often carried out, and as the project progresses, The more you want to go to big exchanges, I believe that this underground market will become more prosperous because people are profitable.
Therefore, the price of the platform currency will be more focused on how much annual dividends the dividends will receive. The greater the return, the higher the demand will be.
4. Destruction of currency supply and demand
Having said the red cent coins, let's talk about the destroyed coins.
How is the supply and demand of currency security balanced?Think about it, if you are official, how will you handle the recovered coins? Sell ​​it?
It is certainly left behind after the destruction of the remaining part of the return to the market. In this way, a balance between supply and demand can be formed. When everyone trades, they can buy BNB for deduction.
In the recent 1 month, the average daily transaction volume was 15 billion yuan, and the profit was 7.5 million. If the BNB price is 90 yuan, 83,000 BNBs will be repurchased daily. The total amount recovered in three months is 8.3*90 = 7.5 million. In order to destroy 20% of the total profits, the number of destroyed BNBs in the first quarter was 1.5 million.
What happens if the transaction volume increases? So profits will increase, if the BNB is still 90? Then the BNB of repurchasing will become more and more. Officials certainly do not want to buy too many BNBs every quarter. Because too many words, 100 million BNBs will be bought back soon (the official regulations will be until the destruction of 100 million BNBs. ). One quarter of 1.5 million, 100 million can buy back 66 quarters, that is 16 years.
Therefore, the conclusion is: The supply and demand of the destruction of currency is decided by the official, and the government can control the market supply to control the market price of BNB to achieve the reasonable amount of destruction that the official wants.
5. The Future of Platform Currency
The future of the platform currency still depends on the development of the entire blockchain industry, because the main factor is the volume of transactions. Whether it is dividends or destruction of coins, as the volume of transactions continues to increase, dividends will increase, and the price of destruction will need to increase to reduce the number of coins destroyed.
And these data are public every day and can be found on non-small numbers.
When one pays more attention to this aspect, the income naturally comes into his own pocket.
Many of the dividend yields of the platform currency are deterministic. Under the uncertain bear market, more people will pursue certain things. When you grasp this logic, you will also be able to obtain more excess returns. .
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