Low-speed electric vehicles turn to the point, where do manufacturers in the industry go?

The huge turning point of the low-speed electric vehicle industry will come in the second half of 2017. How to anticipate the situation and respond well is the most important task for enterprises at this stage. Three major factors that triggered the arrival of the inflection point: the introduction of standards and management policies, the intensification of competition in the industry, and the downward trend of micro-high-speed electric vehicles.

Standards and management policies are external horizontal forces that directly interrupt the normal development process and spur the acceleration of the industry's turn; high-speed electric vehicles are under pressure and the industry itself is intensifying competition, which is a longitudinal force that is squeezed from the upper and lower ends. The industry is practicing inward and developing in depth. In the last issue of the weekly report, the horizontal factors were analyzed. For details, please refer to: “Research Weekly | Low-speed electric vehicle industry turning point is the end, where are the manufacturers in the industry?”. In this issue, we analyze the changes caused by vertical factors and propose feasible breakthrough directions.

First, the change caused by the radial extrusion of the miniature high-speed car

The product platform of high-speed electric vehicles can be divided into four categories: low-cost, comfortable, high-performance and high-end. Take Jianghuai's product planning as an example:

Obviously, under the guidance of the existing points policy, there will be more and more low-cost, 50,000-yuan A00-class models. Taking 3 points as well, making a car is obviously faster and easier. It can be predicted that under the combination of market demand and policy guidance, the market will spawn more models like EC180, Zhidou D2, Chery ant, etc. These products will quickly seize the marketable market of the original low-speed electric vehicles. , bringing great threats and challenges to low-speed electric vehicles.

More seriously, even after the legalization of low-speed electric vehicles, the possibility of these passenger car companies starting to produce low-speed electric vehicles is not ruled out. In the early years, Chery produced a low-speed electric vehicle with a lead-acid version. Wuling introduced a low-speed Smile-E. Lifan built a low-speed electric vehicle factory in Jiyuan. Beiqi also has many rumors of cooperation with low-speed enterprises. From the past history, they It is not entirely impossible to produce low-speed electric vehicles.

This is the former tiger. The market and product changes brought about by the intensified competition in the industry are the post-wolves.

Second, will the micro-high-speed car crush the low-speed electric car?

Then, in the face of the impact of the mini-high-speed car, can the low-speed electric car industry not be able to survive? In fact, there is still no big difference between the automotive industry and the low-speed electric vehicle industry.

Advantages of traditional car manufacturers:

Large-scale production capacity brought by large investment, high production efficiency, higher output, faster cost reduction;

Complete process equipment investment and mature production organization system, strong consistency and quality assurance;

Sound product development and trial production department, strict development system and process management;

Self-owned sales channels, large market investment, strong brand appeal;

The development of the automotive industry has been a hundred years old, and it is an industry with huge capacity and high maturity. The above is only the basic conditions necessary for the car factory, but to correspond to the low-speed electric vehicle industry, there is a question of applicability, that is, whether these conditions are necessary and sufficient conditions for the current development of the industry, and whether it can be transformed into a favorable market for the enterprise. Competitiveness?

1) The market characteristics of low-speed electric vehicles are not enough to support large-scale investment

The large-scale economy is a prominent symbol of the automotive industry, but it corresponds to the same huge scale of the market. According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2016, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 28 million, and SAIC alone exceeded 6 million. The low-speed electric vehicle production and sales of the entire industry is only 1 million.

According to the famous "Maxi-Silberstone" curve of the automobile industry, the minimum effective scale of the car, the production line of stamping equipment is 1 million sets, the scale production of cars is 400,000, the number of light vehicles is 60,000, and the number of trucks is 150,000. Car.

Compared with the mature industry of the automobile and the huge market capacity, the two conditions of the low-speed electric vehicle at this stage are not available. Immature, small size, fast change, obvious off-season, no policy, no subsidies, basic business logic, to be profitable, we must consider the amortization of all fixed and development inputs, otherwise it will become a sunk cost. Now some low-speed car companies have already had these problems, and they are making up for them by means of OEM, price reduction, and branding.

According to the theory of marginal cost: An important factor affecting the marginal cost is the periodic increase of the total fixed cost caused by the continuous expansion after the output exceeds a certain limit (capacity). According to the market situation, it is more scientific for low-speed electric vehicle enterprises to reasonably set production targets and adopt the process routes and fixed inputs corresponding to the target. From this point of view, blind pursuit of scale, excessive production capacity, resulting in low equipment utilization, but there will be problems.

Third, the low-speed car to establish a comparative advantage of the breakthrough direction

It is unwise for low-speed car manufacturers to compete with traditional car manufacturers for the four processes and product fineness. It is necessary to find differentiated product definitions and process routes, and to achieve one-third of the traditional car manufacturers in the development investment of the models, and to change the investment advantages of the car manufacturers. For sunk costs.

First, low-speed car companies can use platform-based, modular products to shorten the development cycle, quickly iterate, gain advantages in the time dimension, while covering the sub-areas with new products, and building advantages from the spatial dimension.

For example, assuming a large-scale production of car grades, at least 50,000 units per year for a single model, you can consider using the same amount of different models. This guarantees some relative product advantages in the segmentation field.

The history and brand burden of the car company determines its stable and gradual style. Although the low-speed electric vehicle enterprise is not as good as the traditional car enterprise in the precipitation of design power, it can better design and define products from the perspective of outsiders and changers, and it can break through the traditional car with less restraint and even jumping. Intrinsic style routines, get rid of the style and tonality of traditional cars.

Second, in the face of the cost advantages brought by mass production, change the way of thinking of traditional components, start with new materials and new techniques, and misplace with traditional vehicles. Look for cost advantages from new materials and look for product advantages from new processes.

Take the low-speed car seat as an example, the price of the whole set is now around six or seven hundred. If the traditional structural process is still used, the products that come out must be cheap and cannot guarantee the process. You can consider the new structural process, or by adding personalized, artistic attributes, with some aspects of the extreme to make up for the lack of functions and processes.

Third, low-speed electric vehicle companies should take advantage of the more accurate and responsive market demand, and study the real customer attributes and needs through quick trial and error.

For example, it can only be charged for more than 2 hours. The general speed is only about 40km/h. Can you redefine the function and dimension of many components? Use the precise mode that just meets the needs to fight the big and whole ideas inherent in traditional manufacturers.

The last point is the motivation level. China's auto industry is still in rapid development. Traditional automakers do not have too much power in this field. Many previous attempts have not ended. On the contrary, for the low-speed grassroots enterprises accumulated in these years, it may be all of them, and they can do everything for them. From this point of view, although there will be an unprecedented industry change, low-speed car companies will still have a chance to break through as long as they can maintain their initial intentions and insist on creating user value.

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