According to reports, more and more analysts are betting on Samsung Electronics ’fourth-quarter profit prospects. It is estimated that the first quarterly loss will occur. Merrill Lynch even estimates that the loss will reach 258 billion won (1.3 billion yuan).
Major institutions have no confidence in Samsung's fourth quarter revenue
Both Shin Young Securities and Citi Global Market Securities Inc. last week raised the probability that Samsung will fall into a quarterly loss of fate in the fourth quarter of this year.
Shin Young estimates Samsung ’s operating loss for the fourth quarter to be 23 billion won (115 million yuan), while Citi believes that the loss will be as high as 184 billion won (920 million yuan). Samsung Electronics has never experienced a deficit since it began publishing quarterly reports in 2000.
Merrill Lynch said on Monday that the "biggest reason for the bleak prospects of Samsung's profits is the severe price erosion from the three core products DRAM, NAND chips and liquid crystal displays."
Last week, ChuWoo-sik, vice president of Samsung Electronics, said that capital expenditures will be reduced to 7-8 trillion won next year, much lower than the 10 trillion won this year, but the final amount has not yet been finalized. Due to the recession of the chip market, the rapid deterioration of panel profits, and the overall slowdown in consumer electronics demand, Samsung has suffered from the enemy. At the same time, Samsung Electronics also lowered its mobile phone sales forecast next year by 8%, from 24.2 million to 22.28 million units, and its mobile phone sales in 2008 are expected to be 20.1 million units.
In response to the outside world's pessimistic view of profit prospects, a Samsung spokesperson declined to comment.
South Korean mobile phone industry hit hard
The "growth engine" of South Korea's IT industry-the mobile phone industry has also been hit by the global economic recession. Since last month, the world market demand has plummeted, and intensified competition among enterprises has caused prices to fall.
An Shengquan, head of LG ’s MC business division (deputy general manager), said on the 12th: "From last month, the world ’s mobile phone market showed a 20% to 30% decline. 100 million units) remained flat. "
An Shengquan predicted at a press conference on the 3rd that next year's mobile phone sales will increase slightly compared with this year, but due to the market downturn, the sales are estimated to be underestimated within a week. Samsung Electronics, which publishes annual mobile phone sales forecast every year, also decided to adjust its plan at any time according to changes in the operating environment.
In fact, until the end of the year, Samsung Electronics only published its market share target (20%), and did not forecast sales next year.
The biggest reason is that the recent decline in the world mobile phone market is very serious. Market research company ISUPPLI predicted on the 3rd that next year, mobile phone output will be 1.22 billion units, a 6% decrease from this year, and sales will be 10.7% lower than this year.
The export of mobile phones by Korean domestic companies will also be significantly reduced. According to statistics from the Korean Ministry of Knowledge Economy, domestic mobile phone exports last month amounted to US $ 2.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 25%. The first ten months of this year maintained double-digit growth, but the growth momentum suddenly decreased.
A person in the IT industry said: "As Nokia, Samsung and other companies are engaged in fierce market share competition, mobile phone prices continue to decline. Therefore, it is difficult for the two companies to maintain double-digit growth rates."
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