Since 2013, China has become the world's largest market for industrial robot applications. However, in China's industrial robot market, China's own brand industrial robots account for about one-third. The good market prospects of industrial robots and the relatively backward development status of domestic robots have to make people think deeply. Where is our way out?
The economy is slowing down against the trend
With the increase of labor costs and the continuous development of domestic manufacturing industry, there is also the proposal of “Made in China 2025â€. Industrial robots used in manufacturing are gradually favored by domestic manufacturers. Since 2013, China has become the world’s largest industrial The robot application market. In the next five to ten years, new materials, artificial intelligence, multi-machine coordination and human-machine integration will have an important impact on the development of the intelligent robot industry, and even lead to large-scale growth. In the next three to five years, the global market for special and service robots will reach 30 billion to 80 billion US dollars, and the development prospects are broad.
However, China's economic growth rate has continued to slow down. The growth rate in 2010 was 10.6%. In 2015, it fell to 6.9%. Experts predict that the growth rate of China's economy will only continue to slow down in the future, and investors' enthusiasm is likely to be affected. .
Generally speaking, the slowdown in economic growth will reduce the investment enthusiasm of enterprises, but it seems that the impact on the industrial robot industry is not great. According to statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, China’s domestic industrial robots maintained rapid growth, and China’s own-brand industrial robots Achieved a 30% speed increase.
Ji Xueliang, manager of Qingdao Haier Robot Co., Ltd. said: "It is well known that the slowdown of domestic economic development is now, but I think it has little impact on the industrial robot industry. Now the country continues to promote 'Made in China 2025'. If labor costs cannot be reduced, automation is needed. The need for industrial robots, the economic slowdown is a fact, but in fact, on the other hand, it is the economic slowdown that needs to boost the manufacturing industry to improve the speed of economic development."
Chen Peng, manager of Shanghai Technology Department of Yokogawa China Co., Ltd. pointed out the impact of housing prices on the industry. He said: "The slowdown in economic development has little impact on the industry. Instead, high prices and high cost of employment have been forced to automate. The development of industrial robots, high housing prices lead to high cost of employment, and now Shanghai can not find engineers below 6000, the decline in house prices is actually not good news for the robot industry, I think the development of robots needs high housing prices."
What is the reason for the difference of 100,000?
At present, the cost of a 165kg welding robot is about 299,000 yuan in China, while the foreign country is about 168,600 yuan. The cost gap of 100,000 yuan is staggering.
"The main key component technology is in the hands of foreign companies, and the space for future price declines is still to look at key components." Dong Zhong, director of motion controller design at the Robot Research Institute of Shanghai Wadi Automation Equipment Co., Ltd. said. Jiang Jun also agrees with this statement. He said: "The technology of core components and control systems is in the hands of foreign companies. These two parts occupy a large part of the cost. Domestic enterprises lack the strength to purchase in foreign countries, and the natural price is high. ""
Jiang Jun, manager of the mechanical structure project of the mechanical structure department of Shanghai Renzhi Information Technology Co., Ltd., mentioned that the pursuit of stability by domestic enterprises and the idea of ​​not making progress have led to the slow development of the core technology of the industry, and the price has not been solved very well. For example, he said: "In order to pursue stability and usability, domestic military enterprises are reluctant to try new machines and processes, resulting in a cost that cannot be reduced. Because it is necessary to have a certain running-in period to replace better machinery, it will stabilize the product. Sex has caused certain risks, so the equipment has not been replaced. To change this situation, it depends on whether there are companies in the country who are willing to spend big money to try new technologies and innovate."
Gao Yaozong, an electrical engineer at Zhejiang Shuo Shi Machinery Co., Ltd., also agrees that the business philosophy of domestic enterprises has led to high prices. He said: "80% of domestic enterprises are not willing to invest a lot of technology to improve their investment. He is more willing to invest in realizing some simple needs. Function, more emphasis on practicality, the quality of the robot does not care, can not be improved, which is unfavorable to the development of technology, if the accuracy of domestic robots has not been improved in the future, if the quality of domestic machines is too low, even if the price is lowered, it cannot be applied. ""
The lack of core technology is difficult to catch up with
According to the data of China Robot Industry Alliance and China Market Research Network, in 2015, the “Four Big Family†Japan FANUC, Yaskawa, KUKA, and Sweden ABB accounted for 18% and 12% of China's industrial robot market share respectively. 14%, 13.5%, other foreign brands have a 34.5% share, and many domestic robot companies can only compete in the remaining 8% of the market.
At present, in the industrial robot market in China, 60% to 70% of products come from abroad, and China's own-brand industrial robots account for about one-third. High-precision key components, control systems, and control software are all dominant in foreign companies.
The data show that China's industrial robots are mainly concentrated in the ontology and integration end, because the lack of core components seriously raises the cost of domestic industrial robots and restricts the development of the industry. From the cost point of view, core components account for about 72% of the cost of industrial robots. In the cost structure of multi-axis industrial robots, the mechanical body accounts for about 22%; the servo system accounts for about 24%; the reducer system accounts for about 36%; the control system accounts for about 12%; and other peripherals account for about 6%.
Gao Yaozong said that it is still difficult to change the leading position of foreign companies. He said: "Now, external parts, the domestic market can almost keep up with the pace of foreign countries. KUKA their processors are domestic, but the core components. The gap between domestic technology and foreign technology is still very large. It is technically difficult to catch up now."
Chen Peng also expressed anxiety about the development of domestic robots. He believes that domestic robots are still in the low-level stage, and foreign robots have entered the level of artificial intelligence. He said: "The domestic understanding of robots is still at a low level of operation, and the technical content is not high. Now Germany has artificial intelligence, can distinguish the target from a pile of chaotic parts, and put it into the development container. Our domestic robots can only be called robot arms.†At the same time, he suggested that the state should improve relevant laws and protect the patents of domestic robot companies. At the same time, enterprises should develop more technical patents that can be put into production, in order to help domestic The development of robotics.
Jiang Jun believes that domestic parts and control systems are far from being comparable to foreign countries. He said: "The requirements for precision and process of components used in industrial robots are very high. In terms of single sensors, domestically done well. There is no, good sensors are to go abroad to buy, this is a big bottleneck. Second is the PLC control system, this control system is also pioneered abroad, foreign mastery, these hinder the development of the domestic industrial robot industry."
Human-machine collaboration is just a transition
Human-machine collaboration is the development trend of industrial robots in recent years, but Gao Yaozong believes that domestic enterprises should do a good job of robots at this stage. He said: "If domestic enterprises have not been able to do a good job of robots, they will consider human-machine collaboration. It is a bit too high and far-reaching. We should first do a good job of robots."
Jiang Jun said that human-computer collaboration is a development trend, but true intelligent production does not stop at human-computer collaboration. He said: "Human-machine collaboration is only a transitional phase. Now that the Internet of Things is developing at a high speed, it is very likely that all the machines in the factory will work together. Each machine knows the progress and steps of other machines. Collaboration, interconnection."
In addition to high-tech such as human-machine collaboration, flexible automation systems are also receiving attention from factories. As we all know, only a single variety, large batch, equipment-specific, process-stable, high efficiency, can constitute economies of scale; on the contrary, multi-variety, small-scale production, equipment specificity is low, in the case of similar processing, frequent adjustments Work fixtures, the process stability is difficult to increase, and production efficiency is bound to be affected. The advantage of the flexible automation system is that it can simultaneously improve the flexibility and production efficiency of the manufacturing industry, so as to shorten the product production cycle and reduce the product cost under the premise of ensuring product quality, and finally enable small and medium batch production to compete with mass production.
Chen Peng believes that to achieve flexible production, the operating rate of the device must be at least 90%. He said: "Flexibility is mainly for increasing and decreasing production capacity in different places, and it is also possible to produce different batches of products according to different orders. This is flexible production, generally used in industries with excess capacity, for example, oil. At least 90% of the operating rate of the chemical industry must be able to talk about flexible production. If the operating rate of the device is not high, it will lose money, so we can't do so-called flexible production."
Does the employment rate affect the smart factory process?
As a proponent of the concept of Industry 4.0, Germany has always been at the forefront of smart factories, Germany's Amberg Siemens Smart Factory, Germany's Bosch Humboldt Factory, Germany's Bosch Humboldt Factory, Germany's BASF Chemical Group Kaiserslautern Plant, etc. Practice the code name of the smart factory.
In the domestic smart factory, there are also large enterprises that can achieve full mechanical operation. “Now Haier has 5 fully automatic intelligent factories, which can't be seen by one person. The lights are not used, all mechanical operations, not only save labor costs, but also save Energy." Ji Xueliang said.
And Jiang Jun believes that to achieve large-scale intelligence can not be rushed, this is a gradual process. He said: "In addition to the technical bottleneck, people need a process to adapt to high technology. If all people are replaced, it will cause a lot of unemployment, so this is a process of slowly adapting and replacing, just like Like Foxconn, after the introduction of automated technology, it can actually replace a large number of people, but it is impossible to introduce it immediately, because the problem of employees to stay is to be solved, and the popularity of intelligent factories is also facing this problem."
Gao Yaozong also agrees that the intelligent factory can't be too hasty. He said: "Automated equipment is not far away for us. Most enterprises are also carrying out machine reforms. However, as far as China's national conditions are concerned, a large number of smart factories may be opened. Affect the employment rate."
Dong Zhong is full of confidence in the future of smart factories. He said that domestic industrial robot companies should be more confident. He said: "Although domestic and foreign companies still have a certain gap in technology, this year's situation has made great progress compared with previous years. Many technologies have achieved breakthroughs, and enterprises need more confidence in production. The smart factory is also worth looking forward to."
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