Five structural opportunities for the next five years

Lei Feng network (search "Lei Feng network" public concern) : Author Li Zhiyong, ten years plank road programmers.

Large successful products have never created demand so far, but only in a different form to better meet the demand. Even in the era of knotty notes, humans already had the need for search, trading, and communication even with the most primitive methods. New technologies often leave us confused without knowing exactly where they will land. In fact, as long as we return to the previous perspective, we can discover some structural opportunities that new technologies may contribute.

| Chromebook

The story of cloud computing has so far had little impact on terminals. Notebooks, Pads, and mobile phones are still equipped with powerful computing functions on the terminals just like desktop computers. They only use the architecture of clients and services to enable end-to-end networking. The combination is very seamless. However, the Chromebook regained the concept of Network Computer and handed all the operations to the cloud. It only did very little. In this way, the cost of the terminal can be greatly reduced. If one thousand pieces of a netbook (Chromebook) can replace 4~5K notebooks for most people, this cost advantage is undoubtedly very obvious.

Of course, this 1,000-piece network notebook should be easy to use and cover a sufficient number of people (especially the company as a productivity tool), then only the terminal is not cheap enough, the back end must also provide Google Docs that can be in 80 % of occasions to replace Office tools. For a lot of people who don't make complicated edits, search and sharing requirements are often more critical. This way, programs like Google Docs will become easier to use than Office. As a result, for those who do not play games, non-heavy Office dependents, such as cheap notebooks, have good benefits in addition to cheap.

In addition, such products can also benefit from security, because everything in the cloud does not even require personal security software, and companies can fully own and manage all their digital assets.

Thanks to the big firewall, so Google Doc and Chrome OS are still not easy to use in China, which also provides opportunities for domestic companies. This looks at the change of the terminal, but in fact the core of profitability is the back-end account system and software.

Thanks to my friends, Jiang Yang and Du Bin (public number: fakethings), I discovered this in their interaction with them.

| Echo

Those who often look at this question may remember that the analysis of Echo in this issue was even earlier than the Internet Queen. It was actually more abstract and more profound. The core of Echo's product is that it represents a new type of interaction , so the logical order of this kind of product is: What exactly do you think of voice interaction? Next is how to look at a more specific product such as Echo?

The core of speech interaction is obviously accuracy, because there is no convenience without accuracy, and if a new interaction method can't be advantageous in terms of convenience compared to the old one, his value is not great.

The factors affecting the accuracy of speech interaction actually come from three aspects: on the one hand, the accuracy of speech recognition; on the one hand, semantic accuracy; on the other hand, the degree of back-end data cleanliness. Out of sight, we know that the current level of technology is not sufficient to solve the problem perfectly in these three areas, that is to say 100% ensure the accuracy of voice interaction is impossible.

However, at the same time, deep learning has given rise to a substantial improvement in speech recognition, and the recognition rate can reach 99% in the standard environment. This means that speech interaction is available in a limited context. Only by looking at Echo in this context can we understand its practical significance and possible play.

First of all, this product cannot be fully functional. Once the user's psychological expectations have positioned him as an omnipotent humanoid robot, then you cannot make products that satisfy the users. From this perspective, Xiao Bing's endless chatter is even harmful in many scenarios.

The second is that the field you enter must ensure the degree of experience. The supported functions can be as wide or narrow as possible, but there are ways to control the accuracy of the interaction. Otherwise, simply adding support functions is worthless.

| Cameras and Security Robots

The classic security scene is based on LANs, although this is to ensure the image quality requirements, but it also undoubtedly increases installation and operating costs. The very interesting thing is that the IP-based camera does not seem to have achieved too much success in security.

At this point I tend to think that this is a classic innovator dilemma, Hikvision has no reason to make fluorite significantly to break the original market. The solution of the traditional camera+switch+storage+control room is not as good as a webcam+public cloud+live+terminal intelligence+patrol robot solution. The former is difficult to set a standard price, and the latter can even be priced standard.

I didn't figure out why this is so, but from the outside, I believe that this opportunity exists. The breakthrough is likely to be first in some small shops that are sensitive to cost. It is clear that there will be opportunities for security solutions that integrate multiple heads and determine the gender age of people in these small shops. For larger sites, as long as the cost can be reduced to a fraction of the original plan, then this is also a structural opportunity. If you want to make more accurate predictions, you need more calculations.

| Electric Vehicles and Driverless

If you choose only one change that will surely happen in the next five years, I may choose an electric car. If the battery technology changes mature, the cost can also be pulled down, so that electric vehicles can generally continue to reach 450 km of Tesla, and at the same time, the charging station can be filled with only one hour. The replacement of traditional electric cars with electric vehicles is one hundred percent of what will happen.

However, the key point for travel is not new energy, but rather the rise of various special cars, autonomous driving and even driverless driving. The reason why we talked about electric cars is because the replacement of energy has given new people the opportunity to build cars. Otherwise, only the traditional depots have the opportunity.

The rise of a private car will definitely result in the travel itself becoming a service. The car itself will fade its identity and these attributes will become a normal tool. At this time, more and more people will find that buying a car is not rational. Cost-effective. At this time, the car sales will decline because the operating efficiency of the entire system is actually getting higher. The limit of this trend is unmanned, because at that time all the trips are dependent on the unified scheduling of a brain in the cloud, and the algorithm is efficiency.

That being the case, does that mean that most of the automakers will hang down, is it not a very bad choice for input and output? The former is correct, while the latter is not. Vehicles are a combination of soft and hard products. Therefore, the ideal situation must be the one that is most suitable for one, and the second step requires a strategic cooperation with high confidence between the two companies. It is impossible to make a divorced cooperation. Out of the car. Can not make a car, the so-called autopilot driver has no opportunity to start.

Looking at the depot to build a car is mainly a matter of renting. It should be a funny thing, but the possibility of following the above trend is actually getting higher.

| VR/AR

I have had a lot of discussions with people about VR. I have been keeping a distance from this highly heated field for a very long time. The reason is not that delays and other issues cannot be solved. The key is that I think people can bring on. Such a thing must have a sufficient driving force. The so-called large enough driving force is only heavily game and adult content in the visible range. In this case, although VR is very hot, it is actually the main game host of the XBox game. All attempts to view VR as a general-purpose device are too crazy. If VR continues to grow, if it does have a film and television adaptation to it, then it may become a device for big screens, but there are too many things to challenge, such as multiple perspectives and narrative structures. And then continue to grow If there is a way to solve the problem of mobility, then it may become a general-purpose device. The entire road is valuable, but it is too long and the uncertainty is too high.

The key to AR's words lies in exactly where reality needs to be enhanced, rather than providing a special visual experience like VR. In the game, by using reality as a game prop it is a good answer to the question of what is actually being used to enhance the situation. In other fields, this enhanced value cannot be seen. I personally don't think that the kind of water pipe that Microsoft demonstrated really needs augmented reality, and the wall projection screen is not a good scene. So it is very likely that the key point of AR is not in 2C (except games).

summary

In the past two years, many large companies have actually been in a state of abundance. Since the Shanghai Wave bonus has been exhausted and the downside opportunities are not clear enough, many companies that look at a little more than a few points have become very expensive. The opportunities that I personally can see are above, not too much. Each of these opportunities has such a characteristic: either cheaper or better experience.

Finally, make a new book notice: "The ultimate reproduction: how artificial intelligence will promote social change", this book will be published, this is looking at the book of writing technology, but in fact it is a scientific perspective to see the social history of ..... In fact, you are a literate person.

Lei Fengwang Note: The author Li Zhiyong, here recommend his public number - the matter of wonder, as always, from a scientific perspective on the history of philosophy, interested can go and see.

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