Semico: Semiconductor industry will bottom out in February next year

Science and Technology Marketing Agency. President Jim Feldhan was in South Korea's Dongbu HiTekCo last week. According to the Analog Semiconductor Leaders Forum, the market conditions for the semiconductor industry, which has fallen into recession since the summer of (2011), are expected to bottom out in February next year.

Feldhan said that OEMs who are nervous because of the deterioration of the overall economic environment and weak consumer spending will continue to digest inventory, and this trend is expected to continue into next year. He also anticipates that semiconductor companies may over-react to the slowdown of operations, which will make the overall industry's capacity utilization rate fall to less than 80% by the end of this year, far below the 90% at the beginning of this year.

However, Feldhan believes that continued inventories of manufacturers will shorten the time of industry recession; the agency's economic turning point index predicts that the current industry's recession trend is expected to bottom in February next year.

In September, Semico revised down its semiconductor market estimates this year, from the original estimated growth of 6% to the recession of 1.4%. The agency also expects that the semiconductor market will rebound 8% next year.

Eric Meurice, chief executive of European semiconductor equipment industry leader ASML HoldingNV, stated in his October 12 earnings statement that the amount of orders in the third quarter (514 million euros) was slightly higher than the original forecast of less than 500 million euros. He also said that although it is still impossible to understand the extent to which overall semiconductor demand will contribute to the company's operations in 2012, it is expected that the demand for the latest nano-technology will prompt this quarter (October-December) to increase the amount of orders above Q3. . According to a survey by Thomson Reuters, analysts originally expected ASML orders to reach 570 million euros in the fourth quarter.

ASML competitors include Japan's Canon and Nikon. Customers include Intel, TSMC (2330), and Samsung Electronics. The amount of ASML orders is considered as an important observation of the wafer industry.