I. Industry Background With the in-depth evolution of smart grid from planning demonstration to step-by-step implementation, the share price of listed companies with the most obvious benefit from secondary equipment manufacturing companies has risen steadily. The leading national power company Nan Rui (600406) has completely filled the rights, and No stop meaning. In fact, in the smart grid, digital substations, smart meter intelligent terminals, access to distributed new energy, and other areas with the most significant features, the progress of building a smart grid is not an overnight move. Just as the concept of the photoelectric transformer and the 61850 was once predicted to subvert the entire power application mode ten years ago, and it is still in its initial stage of application, except that smart meters, a concept that is not new, will be honored immediately. Also are clouds. In addition to the promotion of funds, Nan Rui’s speculation is more dependent on the background advantages of its national network.
However, economic development, the current power, especially in the promotion of energy-saving emission reduction, green energy, the basic national policy, the need to build a strong smart grid is self-evident. The national power of nationalism with Chinese characteristics and the strategic height of the country’s will also determine the unshakable ability to build a strong smart grid. In sharp contrast to the pattern exploration of grid intelligence and the uncertainty of technology development, the foundation of the grid must be built, rebuilt, and expanded. The biggest piece of the smart grid giant cake is still focused on a large number of updated primary devices, rather than "intelligent" secondary devices. In the primary equipment, in addition to transformers and switchgears, the most insignificant part is the power lines that build the grid itself.
The power line is divided into two types: overhead line (LINE) and cable (CABLE). The largest share is undoubtedly the overhead line for constructing high-voltage and ultra-high-voltage main networks. The application of cables was more in the interior of industrial and mining enterprises and part of the urban network, and mainly in the low-voltage power cables. With the improvement of the insulation withstand voltage level, the application of high-voltage, ultra-high voltage cables is also increasing. The construction of new energy power stations, the development of equipment manufacturing, and the promotion of rail transit have greatly expanded the new application fields of cables.
Second, the type of cable can be divided according to the voltage level: 380V/220V ~ 660V low voltage cable, 6kV ~ 35kV medium voltage cable, 110kV ~ 220kV high voltage cable, 330kV ~ 500kV ultra high voltage cable. Can also be divided according to insulation materials: PVC insulation, PP insulation, PE insulation, XLPE (crosslinked polyethylene) and so on. According to the carrier material can also be divided into: copper / aluminum core cable, optical composite cable, superconducting cable. Judging from the cable production process, it can be divided into a catenary production line and a vertical tower production line. If divided by purpose, there are more: transmission cables, equipment cables, construction cables, mining cables, marine cables, rail transportation cables, wind power cables, nuclear power cables, submarine cables, etc. (Excluding communication cables dedicated to weak systems And control cables).
For ordinary investors, the initial understanding is "production of wire", and in-depth study will be at a loss for complex varieties. In order to reduce the complexity of the investment, it is simple and clear to define. Here, all strong cables can be simply divided into two categories: conventional cables and special cables. (Required for capital market investment analysis, non-professional classification!)
Conventional cables - that is, conventional cables used extensively in existing power grids and users, include almost all low-voltage cables, most medium-voltage cables. This is also our basic understanding of the previous concept of "cable". Because of the low barriers to entry and large fluctuations in costs, this part of the product is extremely fiercely competitive with low-price competition in the industry, and the product profitability space is repeatedly squeezed. The outlook is not optimistic.
Special cables - including the use of new types of insulating materials in the low-voltage cable, high-voltage ultra-high voltage cable, new energy power plant cables, industrial special-purpose cables, rail transportation, submarine transmission cables. In short, cables with high technical content, new application fields, good development prospects, and imported product replacement requirements can be classified as special cables. Compared to conventional cables, special cables have a higher profit margin and fewer competitors.
III. Demand for special cables 1. Heavy demand for water-resistant tree cables for large-scale transformation of urban and rural power grids If the “smart grid†is a strange new concept to ordinary people, everyone living in the country should experience it. The expansion and reconstruction of the power grid is in full swing. Especially in the transformation of city networks, distribution networks have become a trend. The double-ring network power supply in big cities, the increasingly narrow space corridors, and the increase in the underground cable rate in the city center (more than 80%) all bring great demands to medium-voltage distribution cables. The maintenance-free requirements of cable and the life expectancy of insulation and pressure, and put forward higher requirements for insulation medium, performance indicators and brand reputation of distribution cables.
The insulating medium of a conventional cable gradually produces dendritic early degradation under the synergistic effect of insulation defects such as electric fields, moisture, and impurities. Degradation of the dendritic throughout the medium or into electrical branches will cause a test breakdown or rundown breakdown of the cable body or accessory of the power cable line. Therefore, how to prevent the generation of water tree (WT) and electricity tree (ET) and avoid cable insulation breakdown is the key to cable selection.
Therefore, water-resistant tree cables with special processes are naturally favored. Although the share of water-resistant tree cables in the entire medium-voltage cable is currently only 10%, the superior breakdown resistance and maintenance-free property determine the sharp increase in the water-tolerant tree share.
2. Local application of high voltage and ultra-high voltage cables High-voltage, ultra-high voltage power grids have historically been dominated by overhead bare wires. In recent years, with the expansion of power grid capacity, 110 kV of the original regional backbone network has given way to 220 kV, a large number of 110 kV lines have been transformed into the main distribution network, and the load demands of urban load centers, commercial centers, and residential centers are increasing. The construction of 110kV substations in urban load centers has been vigorously carried out. Although residents' fear of electric field radiation has brought resistance to the construction of substations in urban centers, this trend has already taken shape. As a result, 110kV overhead lines are inevitably replaced by cables.
On the other hand, the Xinjiang U.S. high-voltage (750kV to 1000kV) grid pilot project has also led to the short-range high-voltage super between the overhead lines and the main equipment such as transformers and circuit breakers in the large-scale construction of superhigh voltage 220kV and 500kV backbone networks. Demand for high voltage cables. The large demand for high-voltage EHV cables was unimaginable and expected several years ago.
3. In the short years of the demand for special cables brought about by the construction of new energy power stations, wind farms have been built up in the midst of controversy, and the nuclear power strategy is also in full swing. The development of new energy sources such as photovoltaics, solar thermal, etc. naturally brings The corresponding special cable needs.
For example, nuclear power plants have stringent requirements and access systems for the cables they use, and Class 1E Class K3 environmental conditions outside the containment enclosure are critical to the use of temperature, voltage life, and heat aging assessment.
At present, as is the case with the core components of new energy, most of the dedicated cables for new energy power plants use foreign products. Domestic related manufacturers have already developed related special cables and have already entered. Large-scale domestic substitution of cables is faster than core devices.
4. Demand for Special Special Cables for Other Emerging Fields The leap-forward development of China's economy has seen many emerging fields, and the demand for specialized special cables has also increased.
Comrades, such as urban rail transit cables, have very high requirements for conductors. They must use tightly-pressed bundles of thin copper wire as the unit and then skein into large-section conductors. Requires internal and external semi-conductive shielding layer, brass band to prevent rat bite, but also Class A flame retardant.
Another example is the development of the shipbuilding industry and the development of offshore drilling platforms. The requirements for waterproof, corrosion-resistant, and anti-aging performance of marine cables will increase.
Others are the demand for specialized special cables in more and more applications such as high-speed rail, aerospace, submarine transmission, port power, underground mining operations, and electric vehicle charging piles.
However, economic development, the current power, especially in the promotion of energy-saving emission reduction, green energy, the basic national policy, the need to build a strong smart grid is self-evident. The national power of nationalism with Chinese characteristics and the strategic height of the country’s will also determine the unshakable ability to build a strong smart grid. In sharp contrast to the pattern exploration of grid intelligence and the uncertainty of technology development, the foundation of the grid must be built, rebuilt, and expanded. The biggest piece of the smart grid giant cake is still focused on a large number of updated primary devices, rather than "intelligent" secondary devices. In the primary equipment, in addition to transformers and switchgears, the most insignificant part is the power lines that build the grid itself.
The power line is divided into two types: overhead line (LINE) and cable (CABLE). The largest share is undoubtedly the overhead line for constructing high-voltage and ultra-high-voltage main networks. The application of cables was more in the interior of industrial and mining enterprises and part of the urban network, and mainly in the low-voltage power cables. With the improvement of the insulation withstand voltage level, the application of high-voltage, ultra-high voltage cables is also increasing. The construction of new energy power stations, the development of equipment manufacturing, and the promotion of rail transit have greatly expanded the new application fields of cables.
Second, the type of cable can be divided according to the voltage level: 380V/220V ~ 660V low voltage cable, 6kV ~ 35kV medium voltage cable, 110kV ~ 220kV high voltage cable, 330kV ~ 500kV ultra high voltage cable. Can also be divided according to insulation materials: PVC insulation, PP insulation, PE insulation, XLPE (crosslinked polyethylene) and so on. According to the carrier material can also be divided into: copper / aluminum core cable, optical composite cable, superconducting cable. Judging from the cable production process, it can be divided into a catenary production line and a vertical tower production line. If divided by purpose, there are more: transmission cables, equipment cables, construction cables, mining cables, marine cables, rail transportation cables, wind power cables, nuclear power cables, submarine cables, etc. (Excluding communication cables dedicated to weak systems And control cables).
For ordinary investors, the initial understanding is "production of wire", and in-depth study will be at a loss for complex varieties. In order to reduce the complexity of the investment, it is simple and clear to define. Here, all strong cables can be simply divided into two categories: conventional cables and special cables. (Required for capital market investment analysis, non-professional classification!)
Conventional cables - that is, conventional cables used extensively in existing power grids and users, include almost all low-voltage cables, most medium-voltage cables. This is also our basic understanding of the previous concept of "cable". Because of the low barriers to entry and large fluctuations in costs, this part of the product is extremely fiercely competitive with low-price competition in the industry, and the product profitability space is repeatedly squeezed. The outlook is not optimistic.
Special cables - including the use of new types of insulating materials in the low-voltage cable, high-voltage ultra-high voltage cable, new energy power plant cables, industrial special-purpose cables, rail transportation, submarine transmission cables. In short, cables with high technical content, new application fields, good development prospects, and imported product replacement requirements can be classified as special cables. Compared to conventional cables, special cables have a higher profit margin and fewer competitors.
III. Demand for special cables 1. Heavy demand for water-resistant tree cables for large-scale transformation of urban and rural power grids If the “smart grid†is a strange new concept to ordinary people, everyone living in the country should experience it. The expansion and reconstruction of the power grid is in full swing. Especially in the transformation of city networks, distribution networks have become a trend. The double-ring network power supply in big cities, the increasingly narrow space corridors, and the increase in the underground cable rate in the city center (more than 80%) all bring great demands to medium-voltage distribution cables. The maintenance-free requirements of cable and the life expectancy of insulation and pressure, and put forward higher requirements for insulation medium, performance indicators and brand reputation of distribution cables.
The insulating medium of a conventional cable gradually produces dendritic early degradation under the synergistic effect of insulation defects such as electric fields, moisture, and impurities. Degradation of the dendritic throughout the medium or into electrical branches will cause a test breakdown or rundown breakdown of the cable body or accessory of the power cable line. Therefore, how to prevent the generation of water tree (WT) and electricity tree (ET) and avoid cable insulation breakdown is the key to cable selection.
Therefore, water-resistant tree cables with special processes are naturally favored. Although the share of water-resistant tree cables in the entire medium-voltage cable is currently only 10%, the superior breakdown resistance and maintenance-free property determine the sharp increase in the water-tolerant tree share.
2. Local application of high voltage and ultra-high voltage cables High-voltage, ultra-high voltage power grids have historically been dominated by overhead bare wires. In recent years, with the expansion of power grid capacity, 110 kV of the original regional backbone network has given way to 220 kV, a large number of 110 kV lines have been transformed into the main distribution network, and the load demands of urban load centers, commercial centers, and residential centers are increasing. The construction of 110kV substations in urban load centers has been vigorously carried out. Although residents' fear of electric field radiation has brought resistance to the construction of substations in urban centers, this trend has already taken shape. As a result, 110kV overhead lines are inevitably replaced by cables.
On the other hand, the Xinjiang U.S. high-voltage (750kV to 1000kV) grid pilot project has also led to the short-range high-voltage super between the overhead lines and the main equipment such as transformers and circuit breakers in the large-scale construction of superhigh voltage 220kV and 500kV backbone networks. Demand for high voltage cables. The large demand for high-voltage EHV cables was unimaginable and expected several years ago.
3. In the short years of the demand for special cables brought about by the construction of new energy power stations, wind farms have been built up in the midst of controversy, and the nuclear power strategy is also in full swing. The development of new energy sources such as photovoltaics, solar thermal, etc. naturally brings The corresponding special cable needs.
For example, nuclear power plants have stringent requirements and access systems for the cables they use, and Class 1E Class K3 environmental conditions outside the containment enclosure are critical to the use of temperature, voltage life, and heat aging assessment.
At present, as is the case with the core components of new energy, most of the dedicated cables for new energy power plants use foreign products. Domestic related manufacturers have already developed related special cables and have already entered. Large-scale domestic substitution of cables is faster than core devices.
4. Demand for Special Special Cables for Other Emerging Fields The leap-forward development of China's economy has seen many emerging fields, and the demand for specialized special cables has also increased.
Comrades, such as urban rail transit cables, have very high requirements for conductors. They must use tightly-pressed bundles of thin copper wire as the unit and then skein into large-section conductors. Requires internal and external semi-conductive shielding layer, brass band to prevent rat bite, but also Class A flame retardant.
Another example is the development of the shipbuilding industry and the development of offshore drilling platforms. The requirements for waterproof, corrosion-resistant, and anti-aging performance of marine cables will increase.
Others are the demand for specialized special cables in more and more applications such as high-speed rail, aerospace, submarine transmission, port power, underground mining operations, and electric vehicle charging piles.
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