[The last four stations in the global manufacturing industry will be the last stop? ] The trend of manufacturing shifts has a great relationship with the fate of the country. There have been four large-scale manufacturing migrations around the world, and innovation factors have been an important driving force for the large-scale manufacturing migration. At present, the greatest reality faced by the upgrading and migration of manufacturing industries is the decline in total factor productivity.
It is generally believed that there have been four large-scale manufacturing migrations worldwide:
For the first time in the early 20th century, Britain transferred some "overcapacity" to the United States;
The second time in the 1950s, the United States transferred traditional industries such as steel and textiles to defeated countries such as Japan and Germany.
The third time in the 1960s and 1970s, Japan and Germany transferred labor-intensive processing industries such as light industry and textiles to Asian “four little dragons†and some Latin American countries;
For the fourth time in the early 1980s, developed countries such as Europe, USA, Japan, and Asia, the “four little dragons†and other newly industrialized countries, shifted labor-intensive industries and low-tech and high-consumption industries to developing countries. So, more than 30 years ago, China Gradually became the largest recipient and beneficiary of the third world industrial transfer.
The professional organizations such as McKinsey and Boston Consulting Group, as well as various economists and media, analyze the global manufacturing shift from the perspective of “cost structure†(including the comprehensive costs of manpower, land, energy, and institutional transaction costs). Judging whether the future manufacturing industry will flow to low-cost countries such as India or Vietnam, or from China to Europe and the United States. The important role of innovation in the global manufacturing relocation process has not received enough attention.
U.S.: Taking Global Manufacturing Process Innovation, Manufacturing Transfer
The United States took over the process of global capacity transfer and realized the rise of the manufacturing industry. It was a long process. Even around 1850, the United States already had 7 of the world’s 10 largest industrial companies, and it did not mean that the United States truly became a manufacturing power. In the industry and technology competition, until 1920, the United States manufacturing industry completely stood on the top of the uncontroversial world, mainly due to the United States in the manufacturing side, the product side of the overall innovation.
In the early 20th century in the United States, great inventions and great companies flashed around. Ford's T-cars and Cadillac's electronic launchers opened the era of human car. Warner Bros. "Jazz Singer" led to the boom of sound films, stainless steel and Man-made gum has reshaped American manufacturing. Phones and electrification have upgraded the industrial infrastructure of the United States.
In particular, the wide-scale promotion of production methods for pipelines and large-scale mass production can not only dilute the fixed costs, but also enable a large number of engineers to gather together to engage in technological research and development, which greatly promotes technological innovation. At the time, the organization of British factories was relatively traditional. Small and medium-sized workshops were the favorite of British society, but such enterprises could not achieve economies of scale and systematic R&D innovation.
By the 1920s, the gap between the United Kingdom and the United States in the manufacturing sector had been enormous. At that time, official data showed that R&D expenditures in the United States accounted for as much as 2.5% of the national output value, compared with only 2% in the same period in the United Kingdom; the proportion of civil engineers in the United States accounted for 13% of the total employed population, and led the UK significantly. %. In 1929, the three pillar industries of the British economy were rail shipping, tobacco, alcohol, and textiles. The top three industries in the United States were agricultural equipment and construction machinery, vehicles and aircraft, steel, and nonferrous metals. Britain’s industrial power, which is competing globally, has indulged itself into relying on tobacco and alcohol to survive.
Japan, Germany: Accepting Global Manufacturing Transfer with Collaborative System Innovation
After the end of the Second World War, the United States in the implementation of industrial planning to rejuvenate Europe and Japan, let Germany and Japan give priority to the development of traditional industries such as steel and textile light industry. However, Germany and Japan are unwilling to accept this industrial arrangement. If they passively accept the transfer of low-end manufacturing, they will always lose the United States in future industrial competition. Since then, Germany and Japan have not only focused on the development of high-value export industries such as automobiles, machinery, and electronics, but more importantly, they have taken over the global manufacturing transfer with an efficient and complete national industrial cooperation system.
Why can Germany and Japan have the most powerful group of SMEs in the world? Germany referred to this as the "hidden champion enterprise" and Japan referred to it as "the tiny world's top enterprise." The industrial structure of Germany and Japan has become more and more refined. Many companies have studied only one type of component for only a few decades. They only make one product, they are world famous, and their benefits are very good. The products they manufacture are unique technologies that are based on the markets that they are looking for. These "hidden champions" do not seek to become bigger, but strive to become the "only company" with some kind of world ranking. So far, many of China's high-end manufacturing industries have lost competitiveness if they do not use key materials and core components from Germany and Japan, such as aviation glass, chips, bearings, and optoelectronic products.
Germany and Japan have the world's leading basic industrial technologies. This is a major foundation for the two countries to maintain their position as winners in the global migration of manufacturing industries. To give two examples, China's rare earth reserves are the world's first, but the lack of technology to turn it into a material. These materials technologies have been researched and accumulated for decades. These materials can be made in nanometer scale and placed in the mobile phone chip. All these require specialized machine tools. These things are not available in the United States, but Germany and Japan have.
Semiconductors are called "informative foods." Semiconductor lithography is used to manufacture semiconductor chips, and 70% of the world's semiconductor lithography machines are manufactured in Japan. Germany supplies the most important optical components. The lithography machine is the most precise, the most critical and the most expensive of all machines that humans have been able to manufacture so far. When the wafer is lithographically operated, the positioning accuracy reaches 0.01 micron, which is equivalent to one hundred thousandth of a hair filament.
South Korea: Accepting Global Manufacturing Transfer with Industrial Chain Integration Innovation
In the process of shifting manufacturing capacity to the Asia-Pacific region, Taiwan and South Korea have played an important role. Among them, Taiwan is a good place for OEM and South Korea is stronger than the integration of industrial chains. However, do not overlook the role of innovation. Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing level is world-class. Hon Hai Precision (the mainland is called Foxconn) has assembled almost all Apple iPhones and iPads. TSMC and MediaTek are world-class giants in chip manufacturing.
Beginning in the early 1990s, the United States company responsible for the design, China's Taiwan is responsible for OEM fab, a huge investment, from 4 inches, 6 inches, 8 inches to the current 12 inches, from wafer manufacturing to cutting, packaging, The tests were conducted by different companies in Taiwan and formed an unprecedentedly large industrial chain, accounting for more than half of the global chip manufacturing market share. At present, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. has already completed a 16-nanometer manufacturing process. Huawei's Huawei Hass and Spreadtrum must use TSMC's manufacturing processes to enable mass-produced high-end mobile phone chips.
iPhone and iPad are just "laboratory products" at Apple. Can they become mass consumer goods? There is a big gap between them - whether anyone can produce this product on a large scale. It is not too difficult for a laboratory to design a product and then spend a long time producing a sample. However, it is manufactured on a large scale and it is necessary for those workers who do not have a technical background to make it. This requires a very rational planning process and a very precise mold design. This involves a lot of patented technology, these molds are designed by Hon Hai itself, and Apple is a "cross-licensing" relationship. In other words, if a product is to be mass-produced, these patents on the production process must be used.
Samsung Electronics is the pillar of Korean manufacturing, and its international competitiveness is based on the "full-industry-chain" model, that is, all-round investment in chips, flash memory, LCD panels, flat-panel TVs, and mobile phones. The pursuit of Samsung's “full-industrial chain†model is not just a cost advantage, but more important is the accumulation of technology and innovation breakthroughs.
The "full-industry-chain" model enables South Korea's Samsung to gain insights into technology and achieve efficient technological innovation and product innovation. After successfully mastering storage and non-memory chip technologies, Samsung Electronics has gradually mastered core technologies such as TFT-LCDs, PDPs, organic light-emitting displays (OLEDs), mobile chips, and flash memory chips. In fact, these technologies are all semiconductor technologies. These semiconductor chip technologies benefit greatly from the in-depth knowledge of memory chip technology in the past, and it is much easier to expand to other chip technologies.
China: Accepting Global Manufacturing Transfer with System Strength
It is after 2000 that the Chinese mainland really started to undertake the transfer of global manufacturing. Currently, the well-known BAT (Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba), and hardware-manufactured manufacturers and brands such as Haier, Lenovo, Huawei, ZTE, Xiaomi, and Foxconn have gradually matured, and China's manufacturing industry has become a self-sufficient, capable overseas brand. OEMs can also launch large systems of their own products. This system was first collectively referred to as the "red supply chain" in the British "Financial Times" published in September 2013. At present, the profit margin of China's manufacturing industry as a whole is still relatively low, but the advantages of the system have been formed.
China's export of many smart phones, home appliances and PC products profit margins of less than 5%, people take it for granted that 95% of profits have been earned by others, entrepreneurs worry about all day long, workers are exhausted, the country consumes resources , leaving pollution, and finally only earn a little money from it. Many people did not make it clear that behind this profit margin is precisely China’s strong industrial system and market system.
The 95% portion includes not only the introduction of some core, high-end electronic components, but also more companies are required to pay workers a certain amount of wages, pay a certain amount of factory rent, pay several yuan for utilities, and pay a certain amount of taxes and fees. The commission paid to the agent is several yuan, the logistics cost is paid several yuan, and the accessory supplier is paid several yuan. This is the largest part of the product cost.
Afterwards, the cost will not disappear for no reason. It only means that the renminbi will be transferred from some people to another. There is no doubt that the accessories supplier needs to supply their own labor, management, factory rent, hydropower, logistics, warehousing, etc.; the power supply bureau needs power grid construction, power station construction, and even coal mining, power equipment manufacturing; logistics companies To provide efficient logistics, you need vehicles, drivers, and highways; then the next step is to build roads, need steel and concrete, and need... The surface profit rate is less than 5%, and the entire country needs Strong support for raw material industry, energy industry, infrastructure, logistics network, supporting industries and market system.
The reliability and speed of the manufacturing industry are more important than the price, and stock-out definitely brings more losses than high prices. Relying on China’s investment in large and complete supply chains and infrastructure, Chinese suppliers appear to be more rapid and more reliable for foreign companies.
For manufacturing powers such as Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea, the "red supply chain" is a system that is also friends and enemies. Without it, many emerging products such as the iPhone may not be available in the short-term, nor will it be the current price. However, the mainland's own products introduced through this system are also speeding, flexible, low-cost, and some ideas that make traditional industrial powers difficult to compete in certain markets because they lack such systems and conditions.
The biggest obstacle to innovation
In today's world, the biggest reality faced by the upgrading and relocation of manufacturing industries is the decline in total factor productivity. The media and economists paid more attention to changes in domestic labor conditions. For example, the implementation of the “five insurances and one gold†system and the increase in hot money resulted in rising salaries and prices, as well as the replacement of markets and industrial structures, causing the Chinese continent to gradually lose its early stage. Cost advantage. “Factor Productivity†is more concerned with relative changes. For example, during the 10 years since 2006, domestic labor costs have increased by nearly 5 times. This does not mean that cost competitiveness will inevitably be weakened. If the degree of automation and organizational efficiency increase is greater, then .
In the past, we habitually viewed Latin America, Eastern Europe, and most of Asia as low-cost regions, and the United States, Western Europe, and Japan as high-cost regions. Nowadays, this is an outdated world view. Subtle changes, such as wages, technical efficiency, energy costs, interest rates, and exchange rates, and other factors year after year, quietly but also greatly affect the cost competitiveness of global manufacturing. "Maps.
In the past decade, global factor prices have risen to varying degrees, but the figures are not the key. What is important is whether they are linked to performance. Compared with profits, is the rise in factor prices reasonable? Regrettably, the decline in "total factor productivity" has led to (even continues to lead to) a pessimistic return on manufacturing investment. Coupled with the glass wall between technology innovation and market returns, global manufacturing will continue to face pessimistic prospects.
Nowadays, the mainstream American society has paid less attention to the competition from China and believes that it is impossible for China to win with a new generation of manufacturing industry, and it has gradually formed a complete statement on “Why China cannot have the next generation of manufacturing industryâ€. With the maturing of technologies such as smart robots and 3D printing, China has no advantage. Multinational companies are trying to move their high value-added manufacturing back to the United States and Europe.
China has launched the "Made in China 2025" 10-year plan, which aims to achieve efficient and reliable intelligent manufacturing using advanced manufacturing technologies such as robotics, 3D printing, and industrial Internet. At the same time, China launched another national plan, "Internet Plus," seeking to integrate mobile Internet, cloud computing, big data, and the Internet of Things with modern manufacturing. Even if the transformation and upgrading of hardware in China's manufacturing industry can be successfully achieved, it still faces three major challenges:
The first challenge: European, American, and Chinese robots consume the same amount of electricity, work exactly the same way, and do not complain or join a union. Is it necessary for industrial companies in Europe and America to transport raw materials and electronic components from all over the world to China and let robots complete the assembly of finished products before they are shipped back to the United States? This is completely economical. European and American companies can use local production at almost the same cost to eliminate shipping links.
The second challenge: Most robots in China are not produced domestically. Even if some are assembled in China, they still rely heavily on importing core components from foreign countries.
The third challenge: European and American industrial companies have great difficulties in hiring technical talent in China because of the management and communication skills required for advanced manufacturing and the ability to operate factories based on complex information. The shortage of professional and technical personnel is already a weakness of China's advanced manufacturing and service industries. What's more, China's manufacturing industry is already facing extraordinary competition pressure from its major rivals.
The Chinese economy, which is based on manufacturing, has reached its most critical moment. Every step taken now will have an extremely profound impact on the future.
The “China Made 2025 Blue Book (2016)†issued by the official authority in September pointed out that under the influence of factors such as the application of smart manufacturing technology and the change in the overall cost of manufacturing, the global manufacturing layout has gradually adjusted: the production of multinational corporations has advanced to manufacturing. The country has accelerated its reflowing trend. At the same time, global manufacturing is accelerating the transfer to lower-cost regions such as Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Africa. The former is the cost dividend derived from technological innovation in developed countries, while the latter is the attractiveness of low-cost countries with cheap labor advantages. China's manufacturing industry, sandwiched between them, is losing its labor cost advantage, while technology and industrial upgrading face no small challenge.
Global Manufacturing Trends
China is already seeking to reduce the overall cost of Chinese companies, namely, factor costs, transaction costs, and institutional costs, so as to leave as much manufacturing capacity as possible in China. At the same time, the national innovation system is stepping up construction. The change in cost structure is not the core of the problem, because the real driving force behind the global manufacturing relocation is technological innovation and industrial upgrading.
In the past, traditional industrial powers generally favored the outsourcing of manufacturing to low-cost areas. This is not to withdraw from manufacturing. Rather, it is precisely to strengthen control over the industry chain. Google’s acquisition of Motorola, high-profile entry into the robotics field and the development of self-driving cars, Google’s long-term vision is that once Internet technology is continuously integrated into the manufacturing industry, it can establish its dominant position. Once every part of the manufacturing industry is taken over by "cloud computing", it will have enough influence and even control over the manufacturing industry.
The trend of manufacturing transfer has a great relationship with the fate of the country. The United States has now withdrawn from many manufacturing sectors, but has not withdrawn from the industry chain, but has specialized in standards and technologies. Japan is also following this path, and technologies such as 3D, 4K, quantum dots, etc. are all developed by Japan and carried forward by Chinese companies. Today, Sharp, Panasonic, Toshiba and other transitional medical devices and energy, Tesla's TV is provided by Panasonic.
Cutting-edge technologies and key innovations are still the main battlefields of traditional industrial powers, and Chinese manufacturers still need to track their technological routes. China’s “demographic dividend†is disappearing, and the “technological dividend†has only just begun. China's manufacturing industry as a whole still lacks the accumulation of technology and capital, original innovation is facing high costs, and the risks are unpredictable.
The real driving force for industrial innovation is the market. Chinese manufacturing still needs to start from small things and small innovations. Many small innovations may inadvertently shake the big market. China's manufacturing industry can rely entirely on its unique market and supplier system to create advantages in the global migration of manufacturing industries and master the complete ecosystem from manufacturing materials to sales channels.
The recent Boston Consulting Group's global manufacturing cost competitiveness index shows that the relative costs of manufacturing in the world economy have changed, which has prompted many companies to rethink the assumptions of the procurement strategy in the past decades and the location choices for future development of production capacity. In the process of formulating the index, think tanks observed that cost competitiveness has increased in several economies, while other economies have been relatively declining. Through this index, think tanks found four significant patterns of changes in manufacturing cost competitiveness:
1. Pressure: Several economies that have been considered low-cost manufacturing bases in the past have faced significant pressures to weaken their cost advantage since 2004 due to a combination of factors. For example, it is estimated that China's factory manufacturing cost advantage over the United States has been reduced to below 5%; Brazil's manufacturing costs are higher than in Western Europe; Poland, the Czech Republic and Russia’s cost competitiveness is also relatively weakening, and their current manufacturing cost levels It is comparable to the United States, only a few percentage points lower than the United Kingdom and Spain.
2. Continued weakening: Several economies with relatively high manufacturing costs in the past decade have continued to weaken, and their manufacturing costs are higher than the US's 16%-30%. The main reasons are low productivity growth and higher energy costs. Economies that continue to weaken in competitiveness include: Australia, Belgium, France, Italy, Sweden, and Switzerland.
3. Maintaining Stability: Over the past decade, many economies have maintained a stable cost competitiveness in manufacturing relative to the United States. In economies such as India and Indonesia, although wages have risen sharply, the rapid increase in productivity and currency depreciation have had a negative impact on costs. Compared to the dynamic balance between India and Indonesia, all the cost drivers we analyzed remain relatively unchanged in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The cost competitiveness of these four economies makes them likely to become the manufacturing leaders in the region.
4. Global Rising Stars: Compared to other global top 25 export economies, the manufacturing cost structure in Mexico and the United States has increased even more. Due to the low wage growth rate, the continuous increase in productivity, the stability of the exchange rate, and the huge energy cost advantage, these two economies have become a new star in global manufacturing. The think tank estimated that the current average cost of manufacturing in terms of unit cost in Mexico is lower than in China. In the world’s top 10 commodity exporting countries, except for China and South Korea, the manufacturing costs of other economies are higher than those of the United States.
Perkins 401-999KW Diesel Generator
Perkins 401-999KW Diesel Generator,Perkins Shanghai genset,Perkins Shanghai Power Generator,Perkins Power Generator Set
Shanghai Kosta Electric Co., Ltd. , https://www.ksdgenerator.com