According to a report by the OECD, the automation of artificial intelligence and robotics poses a threat to jobs than the expected OECD is an intergovernmental organization of high-income countries. The new study contrasts with an influential paper published by Oxford University scholars Carl Frey and Michael Osborne in 2013. The latter warned that about 47% of jobs in the US are at high risk of “automationâ€. Frey and Osborne's research set the tone for the recent debate on automation.
However, according to the OECD analysis, these current concerns are overdone. Researchers have found that only 14% of work in OECD countries is “highly automatedâ€, which means their automation probability is 70% or higher. These countries include the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan. This prediction is far less than the predictions of Frey and Osborne, although it is still significant, equivalent to about 66 million people unemployed.
The report pointed out that, for example, in the United States alone, 13 million jobs will be destroyed due to automation. “Unemployment is unlikely to be evenly distributed across the country, but these few accidents did cause a lot of unemployment,†the researchers wrote.
But why is this new estimate different from that of Frey and Osborne? One reason is that the OECD is concerned with tasks that are difficult to automate in highly automated work.
For example, think about the machine operator in the factory. Although some of their work can be automated, they may have other responsibilities (such as managing inventory and supervising junior staff), and computers can't do that. Think again about the difference between workers in American garment factories and workers in Vietnam: American factories are more likely to be technologically advanced, and typical workers may involve more non-routine tasks every day. These tasks are impossible. automated.
This shows that predicting how and where automation will be an extremely difficult problem.
Although the OECD predicts that the total number of unemployed will be less than people worry, the report emphasizes that the impact on the current labor market has been threatened.
As the researchers wrote: “The risk of automation is not evenly distributed among workers.†The careers most likely to be automated usually require only a basic level of education. This also means that the impact of automation on young people is not universal. Researchers have noted that 20% of young people are doing low-skilled jobs, and 34% of sales and personal services work may be automated.
These trends are particularly important as they show how the upcoming wave of unemployment will further divide high-income, highly skilled jobs and low-wage, unsafe jobs.
A report published last month but in the Financial Times stressed that “technology will undoubtedly bring many new jobs.â€
At the same time, the researchers wrote: "It is important not to overlook the importance of providing retraining and social security for young workers and low-skilled jobs."
The upcoming wave of automation may not be as destructive as we feared before, but that doesn't mean we can be complacent.
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